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The Changing Independent Voters in American Politics

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The purpose of this research is to explore how independents’ characteristics have been changed from 1960 to 2012. The data analysis reveals that how independents’ characteristics are different from other partisans and how today’s independents are different from the traditional view of independents in the 1960s. My findings show that the number of independents has increased, so they became a larger group than Democrats or Republicans. Independents’ ideological policy position is more moderate than liberal Democrats and conservative Republicans. Regarding age, independents are four or five years on average younger than partisans. Regarding gender, the proportion of women among independents falls between Democrats and Republicans. The characteristic of independents’ race is also situated in the middle between black Democrats and white Republicans. Independents’ average house income is also comfortably situated in the middle between wealthier Republicans and poorer Democrats. Most of all, the data have revealed that independents today are more educated and more interested in politics than a few decades ago. In research on Americans’ electoral behavior, independents have been usually ignored by scholars because independents are regarded as unreliable voters having no interest, no knowledge, and no involvement in politics. However, my data revealed that independents have been changed and they are currently better educated and very interested in politics. Thus, my data analysis shows that independents do deserve more attention from academic scholars of voting and elections. For the study, I employed the survey data of American National Election Studies from 1960 to 2012.

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to explore how independents’ characteristics have been changed from 1960 to 2012. The data analysis reveals that how independents’ characteristics are different from other partisans and how today’s independents are different from the traditional view of independents in the 1960s. My findings show that the number of independents has increased, so they became a larger group than Democrats or Republicans. Independents’ ideological policy position is more moderate than liberal Democrats and conservative Republicans. Regarding age, independents are four or five years on average younger than partisans. Regarding gender, the proportion of women among independents falls between Democrats and Republicans. The characteristic of independents’ race is also situated in the middle between black Democrats and white Republicans. Independents’ average house income is also comfortably situated in the middle between wealthier Republicans and poorer Democrats. Most of all, the data have revealed that independents today are more educated and more interested in politics than a few decades ago. In research on Americans’ electoral behavior, independents have been usually ignored by scholars because independents are regarded as unreliable voters having no interest, no knowledge, and no involvement in politics. However, my data revealed that independents have been changed and they are currently better educated and very interested in politics. Thus, my data analysis shows that independents do deserve more attention from academic scholars of voting and elections. For the study, I employed the survey data of American National Election Studies from 1960 to 2012.

참고문헌 (16)

  1. Bishop, G., "The Illusion of Public Opinion : Fact and Artifact in American Public Opinion Polls" (2005), Row Man &Littlefield
  2. Campbell, A., "The American Voter" (1960), Wiley
  3. Converse, P. E., "The Dynamics of Party Support" (1976), Sage
  4. Dalton, R. J., "The Apartisan American : Dealignment and Changing Electoral Politics" (2013), CQ Press
  5. Dalton, R. J., "Parties without Partisans : Political Change in Advanced Industrial Democracies" (2010), Oxford University Press
  6. Dennis, J., "Political Independence in America, Part II : Towards a Theory", British Journal of Political Science, 18, pp.197~219 (1988)
  7. Jacobson, G. C., "A Divider, Not A Uniter : George W. Bush and the American people" (2007), Pearson Longman
  8. Kaufmann, K., "Unconventional Wisdom : Facts and Myths about American Voters" (2008), Oxford University Press
  9. Keith, B. E., "The Myth of the Independent Voter" (1992), University of California Press
  10. Kernell, S., "Going Public : New Strategies of Presidential Leadership" (2007), CQ Press
  11. Lewis-Beck, M. S., "The American Voter Revisited" (2008), University of Michigan Press
  12. McCarty, N., "Polarized America : The Dance of Ideology and Unequal Riches" (2006), MIT Press
  13. Mayer, W. G., "The Swing Voter in American Presidential Elections", American Politics Research, 35, pp.358~388 (2007)
  14. Miller, W. E., "The New American Voter" (1996), Harvard University Press
  15. Nie, N. H., "The Changing American Voter" (1979), Harvard University Press
  16. Weisberg, H. F., "Changing Horses in Wartime? The 2004 Presidential Election", Political Behavior, 29, pp.279~304 (2007)

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