Gutenberg-Richter 규모-빈도 관계식에 의한 국내 지진 규모와 재현기간 예측
Prediction of Magnitudes and Recurrence Intervals of the Korean Earthquakes Based on the Gutenberg-Richter Magnitude-Frequency Relation
1
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
본 연구에서는 1978년부터 2016년 경주 지진 발생 시점까지 38년 동안 기상청에서 관측한 1,278개의 지진 자료를 이용하여 G-R 규모-빈도 관계식을 선형회귀분석을 통하여 도출하였다. 본 연구에서 도출된 G-R 규모-빈도 관계식은 Log10(ΣN per Year) = 3.45 – 0.82 M (R2 = 0.98)로 통계적으로 매우 유의함을 나타내고 기존 문헌과 비교 시 비슷한 범위를 보여 적정성을 확인하였다. G-R 규모-빈도 관계식을 활용하여 재현기간에 따른 국내 지진 규모를 산정하였으며, 미래에 지진이 현재까지 발생한 지진보다 더 큰 규모의 지진이 발생할 경우를 상정하여 미래 지진이 G-R 규모-빈도 관계식에 미치는 영향을 민감도 분석을 통하여 검토하였다. 미래 강진의 영향을 검토한 결과 지진의 규모가 커져감에 따라 G-R 규모-빈도 관계식의 분산(variance)은 증가하는 경향을 보였으며 반대로 상수 a와 b의 값은 감소해가는 경향을 보였다
Abstract
In this study, the G-R magnitude-frequency relation was derived using the data of 1,278 earthquakes measured by the Korean Meteorological Agency for 38 years from August 30, 1978 till September 12, 2016 when the Kyongju earthquake of magnitude 5.8 took place. The G-R relation of Log10(ΣN per Year) = 3.45 – 0.82 M (R2 = 0.98) was obtained from a linear regression fitting the earthquake data and then used to calculate the magnitudes of earthquakes for given recurrence intervals. Using this equation, earthquake magnitudes were evaluated for various recurrence intervals and compared with those for the recurrence intervals currently in use. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was performed to examine the effects of future strong shocks on the G-R relation. As the magnitude of earthquake increased, the constants a and b of the G-R relation showed a decreasing tendency along with an increasing variance of the relation.
참고문헌 (17)
- Aki, K., "Earthquake Prediction", pp.556~574 (1981), American Geophysical Union
- Gutenberg, N., "Seimicity of the Earth and Associated Phenomena" (1954), Princeton University Press
- Iman, R. L., "A Modern Approach to Statistics", pp.497~ (1983), John Wiley and Sons
- "National Earthquake List" (2016)[URL]
- Korea Water Resources Association, "Criteria of Dam Design", ~ (2003)
- Kyung, Jai Bok, "Analysis of Seismicity by Observation of Micro - Earthquakes in the Central Region of South Korea", Journal of the Korean Geophysical Society, 3(3), pp.201~212 (2000)
- Lee, Ho Min, "Earthquake Occurrence Frequency and Magnitude Analysis for South Korea on the Basis of Ground-Observed Data", A Proceeding of Korea Society of Hazard Mitigation, 14, pp.268~ (2015)
- Lee, Kie Hwa, "A Study of Instrumental Earthquake Data of the Korean Peninsula", Journal of the Geological Society of Korea, 16(1), pp.32~45 (1980)
- Lomnitz, C., "Fundamentals of Earthquake Prediction", pp.103~ (1994), John Wiley and Sons
- Maine, I. G., "Long-term Earthquake Recurrence Constrained by Tectonic Seismic Moment Release Rates", Bulletin of Seismological Society of America, 76(1), pp.297~304 (1986)
- Seismic Design Standards Report, "Ministry of Construction & Transportation", ~ (1997)
- Mogi, K., "Magnitude-frequency Relation for Elastic Shocks Accompanying Fractures of Various Materials and Some Related Problems in Earthquakes", Bulletin of the Earthquakes Research Institute, 40, pp.831~853 (1962)
- Noh, Myung Hyun, "Minimum Magnitudes of Earthquake Catalog of Korea Meteorological Agency for the Estimation of Seismicity Parameters", Journal of the Korean Geophysical Society, 3(4), pp.261~268 (2000)
- Oh, Kyoung Doo, "Hydroinformatics for the Age of Uncertainty and Variability. Water and the Future", Korea Water Resources Association, 49(11), pp.22~30 (2016)
- Park, Jai Woo, "A Study on Analysis of the Domestic Earthquake Characteristics Using the Statistical Methods", Proceedings of the Architectural Institute of Korea, 22(1), pp.211~214 (2002)
- Shin, Ji Yae, "Application of Mixed Distribution to Statistical Frequency Analysis of Earthquake Data at East Sea", Proceedings of Korea Society of Civil Engineers, pp.1891~1894 (2013)
- Seismicity Patterns in China. Reprinted from Earthquake Prediction: An International Review, "Xu, S.", 1117~1125, pp.Maurice Erwing Series. 4 (1981)