홍수 방재를 위한 레이더 강우 예측 및 평가에 관한 연구
A Study on Radar Rainfall Prediction and Evaluation for Flood Disaster Prevention
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초록
최근 전 세계적으로 지구온난화로 인한 급격한 기후변화로 인해 집중호우의 강도 및 발생 빈도가 증가하 고 있으며, 이에 따라 도시 유역 홍수 발생으로 인해 인명 및 재산 피해가 증가하고 있는 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 레이더 강우의 홍수 방재 활용성 평가를 위하여 환경부 강우 레이더를 활용하여 2019년부 터 2021년까지 발생한 태풍과 장마전선 등 6개의 강우사상에 대해 부산 지역 내 전하동 우량관측소의 지점 강우량과의 레이더 관측 강우 정확도 평가를 수행하였다. 또한, 시계열 레이더 자료를 외삽하여 강우강도 분포를 이류벡터에 따라 이동시키면서 강우를 예측하는 이류모델을 이용하여 예측 강우를 생성하였으며, 지상 관측 강우량과 비교하여 예측 강우의 정확도를 평가하였다. 레이더 강우 관측 및 예측 정확도 평가 결과 지상 우량계의 강우 자료 이외에도 강우 레이더 자료를 홍수 분야에 활용하는 데 있어 충분한 정확도를 보여줌을 확인할 수 있었다.
Abstract
Due to the recent climate change, the frequency of heavy rains is increasing, and have sudden and local characteristics in urban areas, so the damage to life and property is also increasing, and it is structurally vulnerable to floods due to rapid urbanization. In this study, in order to evaluate the usability of flood disaster prevention of radar rainfall, the rainfall radar of the Ministry of Environment was used to evaluate the accuracy of radar observation rainfall with the rainfall at the point of the rain station in Jeonha-dong in Busan for 6 rainfall events, including typhoons and stationary front that occurred from 2019 to 2021. In addition, predicted rainfall was generated by using a translation model that predicts rainfall while moving the rainfall distribution according to the translation vector by extrapolating time series radar data, and the accuracy of predicted rainfall was evaluated by comparing it with the ground-observed rainfall. As a result of radar rainfall observation and prediction accuracy evaluation, it was confirmed that sufficient accuracy was shown in utilizing rainfall radar data in the flood disaster prevention area.
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