Belarus’ Foreign Policy: Evolution, Driving Forces, Choices
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The objective of this study is to analyze the foreign policy that Belarus, located in the geopolitically gray area between East and West, pursues for its national survival and prosperity, in terms of evolution, driving forces and choices. Since its declaration of sovereignty in 1991, Belarus’ foreign policy has gone through the dialectic evolution process of the following four stages: the so‐called “period of pro‐western neutral line” (Aug. 1991‐Jul. 1994) by the Stanislav Shushkevich regime in the early years of independence; “the pro‐Russian period” corresponding to the first period under the rule of Alexander Lukashenko (Jul.1994‐Sep.2001); “the period of independence from Russia” corresponding to the second period under the rule of Lukashenko; “the period of East‐West equilibrium policy in the third period under the rule of Lukashenko. The establishment and change of Belarus’ foreign policy have been affected by the following four key factors: 1) Russia’s taming of Belarus; 2) the West’s coaxing and pressure for taking Belarus out of the influential area of Russia; 3) Lukashenko’s 18‐year iron‐fist dictatorship; 4) difference in national identity between the eastern and western parts of Belarus. They act as the complex driving forces for deciding foreign policy by mutual actions rather than separate functions for deciding foreign policy. It is above all diplomatic flexibility that the current Lukashenko government needs to expand in order to overcome the offensives of foreign powers on the one hand and to continue social integration and economic development on the other, while consolidating its power and national sovereignty. More specifically, it is necessary to make every effort for not only “the external balancing” of offsetting foreign pressures by coping with the policies of the foreign powers that have relations of deep interests with Belarus but approach Belarus with different purposes, but also “the expansion and strengthening of the diplomatic cooperation relations with the countries friendly toward Belarus. To sum up, the current conditions require “multi‐vector, multi‐faceted foreign policy.”
Abstract
The objective of this study is to analyze the foreign policy that Belarus, located in the geopolitically gray area between East and West, pursues for its national survival and prosperity, in terms of evolution, driving forces and choices. Since its declaration of sovereignty in 1991, Belarus’ foreign policy has gone through the dialectic evolution process of the following four stages: the so‐called “period of pro‐western neutral line” (Aug. 1991‐Jul. 1994) by the Stanislav Shushkevich regime in the early years of independence; “the pro‐Russian period” corresponding to the first period under the rule of Alexander Lukashenko (Jul.1994‐Sep.2001); “the period of independence from Russia” corresponding to the second period under the rule of Lukashenko; “the period of East‐West equilibrium policy in the third period under the rule of Lukashenko. The establishment and change of Belarus’ foreign policy have been affected by the following four key factors: 1) Russia’s taming of Belarus; 2) the West’s coaxing and pressure for taking Belarus out of the influential area of Russia; 3) Lukashenko’s 18‐year iron‐fist dictatorship; 4) difference in national identity between the eastern and western parts of Belarus. They act as the complex driving forces for deciding foreign policy by mutual actions rather than separate functions for deciding foreign policy. It is above all diplomatic flexibility that the current Lukashenko government needs to expand in order to overcome the offensives of foreign powers on the one hand and to continue social integration and economic development on the other, while consolidating its power and national sovereignty. More specifically, it is necessary to make every effort for not only “the external balancing” of offsetting foreign pressures by coping with the policies of the foreign powers that have relations of deep interests with Belarus but approach Belarus with different purposes, but also “the expansion and strengthening of the diplomatic cooperation relations with the countries friendly toward Belarus. To sum up, the current conditions require “multi‐vector, multi‐faceted foreign policy.”
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