중앙아시아 국가의 강압정책과 이슬람 저항운동 연구
A Study on the Repressive Policies in Central Asian States and Islamic Opposition Movements
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Problems associated with growing Islamic Opposition Movements in Central Asia, especially in the Ferghana Valley, have increasingly attracted public attention for over a decade. Some have argued that the problem is going to pose a threat to secular governments and regional security of Central Asia. Islamic Opposition Movements became a reality in the 1999 and 2000 insurgent raids of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan(IMU) in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Recently, the destruction of the Taliban regime and al Qaeda strongholds in Afghanistan have badly damaged the IMU, and some believe it no longer presents a serious threat to Central Asian security, although there is a concern about its resurgence. The secular governments of Central Asia now worry more about an elusive Islamic political party such as Hizb-ut Tahrir al-Islami(HT) and a number of less well-known extremist groupings. These groups are feared to be advocating violence and gaining enough popular support to threaten existing rulers, absent an active government crackdown. A review of some of the Western publications and news reports as well as speeches of regional government officials often points to a serious threat posed by Islamic Opposition Movements. In the wake of the September 11th terrorist attacks, such rhetoric appears to be increasingly popular. However, this threat is usually exaggerated. This paper will assess and analyze the threat of Islamic Opposition Movements in Central Asian states. It argues that Islam is gaining a strong foothold in the region, however, political and extremist forms of Islam have not received popular support, making the appeal of subversive Islamic Opposition Movements limited. It also argues that there is a direct correlation between repressive policies of the region’s governments and the growth of Islamic Opposition Movements in Central Asia. This paper will first look into the roots of Islamic Opposition Movements in Central Asia. Second, it will define the threat of Islamic Opposition Movements in the region, looking at specific Islamic groups and assessing the threat level posed by each group. Third, it will analyze the response of individual countries to this Islamic challenge, followed by policy recommendations.
Abstract
Problems associated with growing Islamic Opposition Movements in Central Asia, especially in the Ferghana Valley, have increasingly attracted public attention for over a decade. Some have argued that the problem is going to pose a threat to secular governments and regional security of Central Asia. Islamic Opposition Movements became a reality in the 1999 and 2000 insurgent raids of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan(IMU) in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Recently, the destruction of the Taliban regime and al Qaeda strongholds in Afghanistan have badly damaged the IMU, and some believe it no longer presents a serious threat to Central Asian security, although there is a concern about its resurgence. The secular governments of Central Asia now worry more about an elusive Islamic political party such as Hizb-ut Tahrir al-Islami(HT) and a number of less well-known extremist groupings. These groups are feared to be advocating violence and gaining enough popular support to threaten existing rulers, absent an active government crackdown. A review of some of the Western publications and news reports as well as speeches of regional government officials often points to a serious threat posed by Islamic Opposition Movements. In the wake of the September 11th terrorist attacks, such rhetoric appears to be increasingly popular. However, this threat is usually exaggerated. This paper will assess and analyze the threat of Islamic Opposition Movements in Central Asian states. It argues that Islam is gaining a strong foothold in the region, however, political and extremist forms of Islam have not received popular support, making the appeal of subversive Islamic Opposition Movements limited. It also argues that there is a direct correlation between repressive policies of the region’s governments and the growth of Islamic Opposition Movements in Central Asia. This paper will first look into the roots of Islamic Opposition Movements in Central Asia. Second, it will define the threat of Islamic Opposition Movements in the region, looking at specific Islamic groups and assessing the threat level posed by each group. Third, it will analyze the response of individual countries to this Islamic challenge, followed by policy recommendations.
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