미국의 대이란 정책: 부시행정부와 오바마 행정부를 중심으로

Abstract

The United States needs a strategically coherent diplomatic approach to dealing with Iran. The United States is currently engaged in a vast region encompassing the Middle East and Central Asia to an extent unprecedented in its history. This region is complicated,volatile, and vitally important to an array of U.S. interests. Iran occupies a central position in the Middle East, and as such its internal and international conduct have wide-ranging repercussions for the region as a whole and for U.S. interests within it. The Bush Administration consistently maintained that military action to delay or halt Iran's nuclear program was an option that was "on the table" but Obama Administration has not indicated a similar inclination to highlight this option. Although some Members publicly oppose most forms of military action against Iran, others fear that diplomacy and sanctions might not succeed and that preventiong Iran from acquiring a working nuclear device is paramount. There are three perspectives regarding the U.S. aims in adopting this latest round of sanctions against Iran. First, the main goal of these new sanctions is to prepare global public opinion for conflict with Iran, as well as to weaken Iran's economy in order to set the stage for a potential conflict. Second, the new sanctions have been adopted to contain Iran's successful efforts in establishing regional and global political coalitions. Because Iran's peaceful nuclear activities are in accord with the Nonproliferation Treaty(NPT) rules and regulations and have international legitimacy, Iran can participate in new coalitions with rising powers and the critics of the dominant Western trends in the NPT in order to enhance its nuclear policy. Third, sanctions are necessary in order to negotiate from a position of strength and thus ought to be considered diplomacy by other means. The policy of sanctions, not only will not change Iran's nuclear policy at this stage, but in both the short term and long term will bring about negative politicla-security and economic implications for the U.S. interests. In the short term, the new sanctions will increase the level of tension in the region. For example, economic embargo and sea cargo inspections will potentially increase the peril of military clashes between Iran and those countries willing to implement the sanctions.