The Global Economic Impact of Arab Spring Refugees: A Panel Data Analysis (2010-2023)
4
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
This study examines the economic and social impacts of Middle Eastern refugee inflows after the Arab Spring, focusing on GDP, labor-force participation, and the Human Capital Index from 2010– 2023. Using system GMM on a panel of 217 countries, we assess how refugee movements shape host economies. Results show positive but statistically insignificant associations, implying limited immediate effects. Yet potential long-term gains from integration—especially stronger labor markets and human-capital formation—are evident. Outcomes hinge on host-country policies, underscoring inclusive labor markets and education. These findings challenge “burden” narratives, supporting evidence-based policies that counter misinformation and showing that well-managed inflows can bolster economic resilience and social development. We also observe cross-country heterogeneity, with more favorable trajectories where early work authorization and credential recognition are adopted. Future research should leverage subnational variation and quasi-experimental designs to identify causal mechanisms and distributional effects.
Abstract
This study examines the economic and social impacts of Middle Eastern refugee inflows after the Arab Spring, focusing on GDP, labor-force participation, and the Human Capital Index from 2010– 2023. Using system GMM on a panel of 217 countries, we assess how refugee movements shape host economies. Results show positive but statistically insignificant associations, implying limited immediate effects. Yet potential long-term gains from integration—especially stronger labor markets and human-capital formation—are evident. Outcomes hinge on host-country policies, underscoring inclusive labor markets and education. These findings challenge “burden” narratives, supporting evidence-based policies that counter misinformation and showing that well-managed inflows can bolster economic resilience and social development. We also observe cross-country heterogeneity, with more favorable trajectories where early work authorization and credential recognition are adopted. Future research should leverage subnational variation and quasi-experimental designs to identify causal mechanisms and distributional effects.