누가 왜 광장의 정치에 참여하는가?: 남아공 시민들의 시위 참여 결정요인에 대한 경험적 분석
Determinants of South African Protest Participation
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최근 남아프리카공화국에서는 폭력시위와 집회가 급격하게 증가하고 있다. 이 연구는 2013년 남아공 세계가치관조사(World Values survey)를 바탕으로 남아공시민들의 시위와 집회 참여를 결정하는 추동원인이 무엇인가를 연구하는 데 목적이 있다. 특히 회귀분석(regression analyses)을 이용하여, 불만족 이론과 집합행동이론 중 어떠한 요인들이 남아공 시민들의 시위 참여에 주요 동인이 되었는지를 추론하고자 한다. 경험적 연구 결과 첫째, 남아공의 흑인들은 구조적인 불평등과 인종 계급분화의 고착화에 대항해 시위와 집회에 참여할 가능성이 높았다. 둘째, 현금 부족과 식량 부족과 같은 경제적 생활고를 경험하는 사람들일수록 시위에 참여할 가능성이 높았지만, 정치에 대한 시민들의 불만이나 민주주의에 대한 불만족은 시위참여의 직접적 동인은 아니었다. 셋째, 미래의 계층상승 가능성에 대해 비관적으로 전망하는 사람들은 시위에 참여할 가능성이 높았다. 마지막으로, 노조와 정당과 같은 사회적 관계망이 시위 참여에 매우 중요한 역할을 하며 강력한 동원효과를 가져왔다. 결론적으로 본 논문은 남아공 흑인들의 시위와 집회가 주로 구조적인 불평등과 경제적 불만에 의해 촉발되었고 사회적 관계망이 강력한 동원효과를 가진다고 결론지으면서, 후속연구의 필요성에 대해 강조한다.
Abstract
Although protest politics have exponentially increased in frequency and intensity in South Africa in recent years, there is no systematic studies about major determinants of individual level protest participation. This study is designed to investigate whether political or economic grievances are the major driver of mass demonstrations in South Africa. Using World Values Survey data in 2013 and employing regression analysis of individual level survey data based on protest participation as the dependent variable, I find that economic grievances and pessimistic assessment about future social upward mobility make a more significant influence on decisions of ordinary citizens to protest than political grievances. This study shows that economic hardship and negative perception about horizontal inequality are associated with a higher likelihood of protest participation, whereas dissatisfaction about the level of democracy and politics is not associated with a higher likelihood of protest participation. Lastly, social mobilization in labor union and party organizations is significantly associated with higher protest participation. This study concludes that protest politics in South Africa were driven mainly by economic grievances and social capital.
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