總要素生産性의 構造的 變化와 情報通信技術의 役割:企業의 패널데이터를 이용한 韓國과 美國 간 比較
Structural Change in Total Factor Productivity and Role of Information and Communication Technology: A Comparison between Korea and the U.S. using the Panel Data of Firms
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본고는 총요소생산성(TFP)의 구조적 변동과 정보통신기술(ICT)의 역할을 1990-2005년간 기업의 패널자료를 이용하여 전자는 자료포락분석의 맴퀴스트지 수로, 그리고 후자는 회귀분석으로 추정하여 한국과 미국을 비교·분석했다. 우선, TFP는 한국과 미국에서 ICT산업, ICT高이용산업과 ICT低이용산업의 일부 업종들에서 향상되고 ICT고이용산업에서 가장 크게 증가했다. ICT산업의 향상수 준은 미국보다 한국에서 다소 높으나 매우 낮았다. 그리고 ICT산업의 TFP는 양국 에서 최근에 향상에서 퇴보로 전환되었고, TFP의 향상경향이 ICT고이용산업에서 는 양국간에 유사했으나 ICT저이용산업에서는 미국보다 한국에서 광범위했다. 다 음으로, 모든 산업의 TFP변동의 핵심적 결정요인은 양국에서 기술변화였다. 이와 같은 正의 관계는 기술적 효율성의 변화에 의해서 강화되었으며 TFP향상을 위한 기술변화에 대한 기술적 효율성의 보완성은 한국보다 미국에서 강했다. 마지막으 로, ICT산업의 기술변화는 한국과 미국에서 ICT고이용산업 및 일부 ICT저이용업 종들의 TFP변동에 유의하게 기여했다. 그 영향은 ICT저이용업종들보다 ICT고이 용업종들에서, 그리고 한국보다 미국에서 컸다. 따라서 향후 ICT의 역동성이 회복되고, 그 결과 TFP의 향상경향이 ICT저이용업종 들로 더욱 강하게 확산되어야만 ICT가 다목적 기술 또는 경제성장의 엔진이라는 주장이 유효할 것이다. 한국에서 더욱 그렇다.
Abstract
This paper compared Korea's structural change in total factor productivity(TFP) and the role of information and communication technology(ICT) with the U.S.'s, estimating TFP through Malmquist index of data envelopment analysis and the impact of ICT on TFP of ICT-using industries through regression analysis based on the panel data of firms. First of all, TFP improved in ICT industry, ICT highly intensive industry and some categories of ICT lowly intensive industry in Korea and the U.S., and most in ICT highly intensive industry. TFP of ICT industry increased more moderately than that of ICT-using industries, and more highly in Korea than in the U.S.. TFP of ICT industry worsened recently after improving previously in both countries. The tendency to improve in TFP of ICT highly intensive industry was analogous in both countries, but that of ICT lowly intensive industry was more widespread in Korea than in the U.S.. Next, the technical change was key determinant of TFP of all industries in two countries. This positive relationship between technical change and TFP was strengthened, positively or negatively, by the change in technical efficiency, and the complementarity of technical efficiency to technical change for an increase in TFP was weaker in Korea than in the U.S.. Finally, ICT contributed significantly to improving TFP of both ICT highly intensive industry and some categories of ICT lowly intensive industry in two countries. The impact was stronger in the former than in the latter, and in the U.S. than in Korea. Therefore, only if the dynamics of ICT revitalizes in future, and consequently the tendency to improve in TFP spreads more strongly in ICT lowly intensive industry, the theory that ICT is a general purpose technology or an engine of economic growth will continue to hold. It is all the more so for Korea.
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