Study on the Traffic Prediction of Vessels Passing through the Northern Sea Route (NSR)
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참고문헌
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초록
The NSR has been attracting a large amount of interest worldwide because its commercial gain can prevail over other marine lines between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Currently, scientific inquiry of the NSR has primarily focused on commercial usefulness, tendency scrutiny, and security. Nevertheless, the scant of research has been made on the prediction of vessels passing through the Northern Sea Route (NSR). The aim of current research is to investigate the estimated prospect of vessel volumes using the dossier of vessels that have sailed via the NSR from January 2015 to December 2019. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Box-Jenkins model was used. Bulk carriers demonstrated quarterly seasonality, and it was approximated that the statistics of bulk carrier shipments would grow steadily. Container ships were anticipated to keep a complementary level of service because the figures of the predicted categories were estimated as being analogous.
Abstract
The NSR has been attracting a large amount of interest worldwide because its commercial gain can prevail over other marine lines between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Currently, scientific inquiry of the NSR has primarily focused on commercial usefulness, tendency scrutiny, and security. Nevertheless, the scant of research has been made on the prediction of vessels passing through the Northern Sea Route (NSR). The aim of current research is to investigate the estimated prospect of vessel volumes using the dossier of vessels that have sailed via the NSR from January 2015 to December 2019. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Box-Jenkins model was used. Bulk carriers demonstrated quarterly seasonality, and it was approximated that the statistics of bulk carrier shipments would grow steadily. Container ships were anticipated to keep a complementary level of service because the figures of the predicted categories were estimated as being analogous.
참고문헌 (19)
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