쌀 단수 예측모형 개발연구
A Study of Building Rice Crop Yield Forecasting Model
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초록
본 연구는 시군별 자료를 이용하여 패널자료를 구축하고 지역별로 시간이 변함에 따라 변하지 않는 고정효과를 고려한 패널모형을 이용하여 기상요인에 대한 추정계수를 산출하고, 이러한 결과를 바탕으로다양한 기상시나리오를 접목시켜 확률적 기법을 이용한 단수예측모형을 개발하였다. 개발된 쌀 단수예측모형은 최근 10년 간 시군별 패널자료를 이용하여 단수를 종속변수로 평균기온, 적산온도, 일교차, 일조시간을 설명변수로 하는 추정방정식을 설정하였다. 고정효과모형을 이용한 추정결과는 평균기온이 이차형식임을 확인할 수 있었으며, 출수기에는 적산온도, 등숙기에는 평균기온에 큰 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났다. 쌀 단수예측모형은 통계청에서 제공하는 실측 조사결과 이전에 그 결과를 예측할 수 있다는 점에서 의미가 있다. 이는 수급대책 마련을 위한 논리적 근거자료로써 충분하기 때문이다. 덧붙여 토지생산성 및 환경공학적 요인을 본 연구에서 개발된 단수예측모형과의 결합연구는 향후 과제로 남긴다.
Abstract
This study builds counties-specific panel data and establish a stochastic rice yield forecastingmodel by using a fixed effect panel model based on results calculating the coefficients for themeteorological factors, and by using a variety of weather scenarios. Rice yield prediction modeldeveloped estimating equations were set to rice yield as the dependent variable, and the averagetemperature, accumulated temperature, daily temperature range, sunshine hours as explanatoryvariables, by using panel data by counties in recent 10 years. Estimation results using afixed-effects model was able to verify that an average temperature affects to yield as quadraticform, there appeared to be significantly affected by accumulated temperature in Heading period,an average temperature in Ripening period. a rice yield prediction model is meaningful in thatwe can see the forecasting results in the previous. not waiting the actual survey results providedby the National Statistical Office. because this forecasting estimates is sufficient rationalematerial by government supply & demand measures. Finally, the study leave to future challengeswith respect to establishing a prediction model developed as combined with land productivityand environmental engineering factors.
참고문헌 (12)
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