브라질 룰라 정부의 유산과 후세피 정부의 전망
Lula’s Brazil: a critical assessment
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The article tries to evaluate the legacies of Lula government which were much lauded by national and international media coverage. Brazil under Lula shows well both the darker and the brighter sides of the reform experiences since 1990s in Brazil. First, the growth in export market, due to the Chinese demand, tends to reduce the risks of external crises, and allow for more vigorous expansion of the domestic market. But Brazilian economic performance has not been quite good in the last decade comparing with its historical records. The pace of growth was more moderate with annual growth rate of 4.1%, well below the ones of the more dynamic developing economies. Second, the pillars of the macroeconomic policy have been the use the of exchange rate as an anti-inflation instrument, and the maintenance of primary surplus, which was continued since the Cardoso administration. Higher rate of interest combined with a relatively unregulated capital account, has led to significant capital inflows and a long term tendency to exchange rate appreciation, which would also leads to the ‘Dutch disease.’Third, the moderate improvement in income distribution and the appearance of the “so-called” new middle class was quoted by the Lula government as one of the main accomplishments. It is clear that the wages of the lower income strata,in particular, the minimum wage increased at a faster pace. But the average real remuneration of workers has not improved significantly. The notion of a new middle-class has been tied more to the enlargement of social programs, and the expansion of consumer credit. The Dilma administration tries to expand the more progressive programs of Lula’s second term(PAC-2), and allow the economy to grow at a faster pace,promoting a more significant redistribution of income. But the structural constraints ingrained by the Cardoso and Lula administrations tend to lead her government to a more moderate and cautious agenda.
Abstract
The article tries to evaluate the legacies of Lula government which were much lauded by national and international media coverage. Brazil under Lula shows well both the darker and the brighter sides of the reform experiences since 1990s in Brazil. First, the growth in export market, due to the Chinese demand, tends to reduce the risks of external crises, and allow for more vigorous expansion of the domestic market. But Brazilian economic performance has not been quite good in the last decade comparing with its historical records. The pace of growth was more moderate with annual growth rate of 4.1%, well below the ones of the more dynamic developing economies. Second, the pillars of the macroeconomic policy have been the use the of exchange rate as an anti-inflation instrument, and the maintenance of primary surplus, which was continued since the Cardoso administration. Higher rate of interest combined with a relatively unregulated capital account, has led to significant capital inflows and a long term tendency to exchange rate appreciation, which would also leads to the ‘Dutch disease.’Third, the moderate improvement in income distribution and the appearance of the “so-called” new middle class was quoted by the Lula government as one of the main accomplishments. It is clear that the wages of the lower income strata,in particular, the minimum wage increased at a faster pace. But the average real remuneration of workers has not improved significantly. The notion of a new middle-class has been tied more to the enlargement of social programs, and the expansion of consumer credit. The Dilma administration tries to expand the more progressive programs of Lula’s second term(PAC-2), and allow the economy to grow at a faster pace,promoting a more significant redistribution of income. But the structural constraints ingrained by the Cardoso and Lula administrations tend to lead her government to a more moderate and cautious agenda.
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