RCEP and Its Impact on the Global Economy: A CGE Approach
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This paper aims at conducting a quantitative assessment of the potential economic effects of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) on the global economy using a global multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The RCEP is a proposed FTA in the Asia-Pacific region between the ten member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and their five FTA partners (Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand, and Korea). India, ASEAN's sixth FTA partner, opted out of the agreement in 2019. Depending on the participation of India and the level of trade liberalization in terms of tariff reduction, four policy scenarios on the RCEP are conducted. GTAP database version 10 released in September 2019 is used for this study, the base year of which is 2014. The potential economic effects of the 4 scenarios are represented in terms of export and import volumes, terms of trade, trade balance, real GDP, and equivalent variation (EV) for welfare. Most of the participating countries of the RCEP are expected to gain an additional economic growth in terms of real GDP and welfare in terms of EV from the RCEP, while all the non-participating countries of the RCEP except the Rest of the World (ROW) are expected to experience an additional loss of economic growth and welfare.
Abstract
This paper aims at conducting a quantitative assessment of the potential economic effects of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) on the global economy using a global multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The RCEP is a proposed FTA in the Asia-Pacific region between the ten member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and their five FTA partners (Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand, and Korea). India, ASEAN's sixth FTA partner, opted out of the agreement in 2019. Depending on the participation of India and the level of trade liberalization in terms of tariff reduction, four policy scenarios on the RCEP are conducted. GTAP database version 10 released in September 2019 is used for this study, the base year of which is 2014. The potential economic effects of the 4 scenarios are represented in terms of export and import volumes, terms of trade, trade balance, real GDP, and equivalent variation (EV) for welfare. Most of the participating countries of the RCEP are expected to gain an additional economic growth in terms of real GDP and welfare in terms of EV from the RCEP, while all the non-participating countries of the RCEP except the Rest of the World (ROW) are expected to experience an additional loss of economic growth and welfare.
참고문헌 (18)
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