실물 및 금융 사이클을 감안한 통화정책과 거시건전성정책 운용
Monetary and Macroprudential Policies Considering Business and Financial Cycles
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사회후생 극대화를 위해서는 실물 및 금융 사이클 등 거시경제 변수의 순환에 대한 분석을 통해 현재 경제가 처한 국면을 정확히 파악하고 통화 및 거시건전성 정책 간 최적조합을 선택해야 한다. 기존 연구들은 실물사이클의 변동을 분석하는 과정에서 금융과 실물이 동일한 방향으로 움직이면서 상호작용을 통해 실물사이클을 확대시키는 경기순응성에 초점을 두었다. 그러나 최근에는 금융사이클이 고유의 동인을 가지고 있기에 별도의 거시경제순환으로 이해해야 한다는 견해가 늘고 있다. 동 견해에 따르면 실물 및 금융 사이클이 상이한 방향으로 움직일 수 있기에 실물경기 및 금융순환에 대응하는 정책들 간 상충관계가 나타날 수 있다. 일반적으로 각 사이클에 개별적으로 대응하는 경우에는 실물사이클 변동에는 통화정책을, 금융사이클 변동에는 거시건전성정책을 각각 활용하는 것이 적절하다. 그러나 통화정책은 금융사이클에도, 거시건전성정책은 실물사이클에도 영향을 미칠 수 있기에 양 정책 간 조화로운 운용을 통해 경제안정화 효과를 제고해야 한다. 만약 실물 및 금융 사이클이 독자적인 동인을 갖는다면 4가지 국면조합이 가능하다. 양 사이클의 국면이 동일하다면 최적 정책조합은 각각의 개별적인 정책대응에 비해 강도가 낮은 수준에서 결정될 수 있는 반면 상이한 경우에는 최적 정책조합은 개별적인 정책수행보다 높은 강도로 추진되어야 한다. 따라서 정책수단들이 여러 정책당국으로 분산되어 있는 상황에서는 거시경제 정책당국들 간 경제시스템 내 실물 및 금융 사이클의 형태, 국면 등에 대한 인식을 공유하고 최적 정책조합을 선택하기 위한 협의 및 상호협력이 긴요하다 하겠다.
Abstract
For the maximization of the social welfare, it is critical to choose an optimal coordination between monetary and macroprudential policies depending on the phase of business and financial cycles in which the current economy is placed. In this context, we examine a conceptual framework of operation of monetary and macroprudential policies considering business and financial cycles. In general, it is known that monetary policy is better suited for stabilizing the real economic fluctuations while macroprudential policy for preserving financial stability. However, the use of each policy needs to consider the effects from monetary policy on financial stability and from macroprudential policy on real economic stability. When business and financial cycles are in the same phase, it is desirable for each policy to be implemented with a lower intensity than the case where monetary and macroprudential policies target business and financial cycles respectively. On the contrary, when business and financial cycles are in the different phase, each policy should be performed with a greater intensity.
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