물가안정과 금융안정의 관계분석
A Study on the Relationship between Price Stability and Financial Stability
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글로벌 금융위기 이후 금융안정이 물가안정과 더불어 중앙은행의 주요 책무로 인식되고 있는가운데, 한편에서는 물가안정목표제(IT)가 오히려 중앙은행의 금융안정 역할을 약화시킬 수있다는 우려도 함께 제기되고 있다. 이와 같은 인식에 따라 한국에서 IT가 실제로 금융안정측면에서 제약 혹은 한계점을 가지고 있는지를 파악하기 위해 금융불안정에 대한 실증분석을실시한 결과는 다음과 같다. 1996년 이후 한국에서는 물가안정과 금융안정 간에 상호보완 관계만있는 것이 아니라 시차에 따라 상충별개 관계도 발생하는 것으로 분석되었다. 그러므로 물가안정과금융안정 간의 관계는 상호보완 또는 상충별개라는 단편적인 평가를 내리기는 어렵다고 결론내릴수 있다. 이런 상황에서는 중앙은행이 물가안정만을 목표로 삼아서 통화정책을 운영할 경우 금융불안정발생을 방지하기 어려울 뿐만 아니라 오히려 금융불안정 발생을 방조하는 등 의도하지 않은결과가 나타날 수 있다. 이러한 가능성을 최소화하기 위해서는 통화정책으로 IT를 채택하고있을 때에는 금융안정을 별도로 감안하는 방향으로 제도를 개선할 필요가 있다. 금리조정만으로물가 및 자산시장 상황에 일일이 대응할 경우 통화정책의 예측가능성과 신뢰성이 저하되고경제전반의 변동성이 확대될 소지가 있다는 점을 간과해서는 안 된다. 그러므로 물가안정과금융안정이라는 두 가지 목표를 동시에 달성하기 위해서는 통화정책과 거시건전성정책을 적절히조합하는 것이 중요하고, 이를 위해서는 두 정책 간 공조와 협력은 매우 중요하다.
Abstract
While the financial stability since the global financial crisis has been recognized as a primary duty of the central bank along with price stability, on the other hand there are concerns that the inflation targeting (IT) could rather weaken the central bank's financial stability role. The empirical results for Korea since 1996 show that the relationship between price stability and financial stability was not only the complementary relationship, but also the conflict relationship according to the time lag. Under these circumstances, if the central bank were to operate monetary policy with only the goal of price stability, it would be difficult to prevent financial instability and might have unintended consequences such as assisting financial instability. Thus, it is important to combine monetary policy with macroprudential policy to achieve both goals of price stability and financial stability simultaneously, and to achieve this, collaboration and cooperation between the two policies is crucial.
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