Risks and Supervisory Challenges of Financial Conglomerates in Korea
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초록
본 논문은 외환위기 이후 빠르게 진전되어 온 금융 대형화, 그룹화 현상이 개별 금융기관과 시장 전반의 시스템 리스크에 미치는 영향에 대하여 분석하였다. 실증분석 결과에 따르면, 위기 이후 독립 금융기관과 비교하여 금융그룹 소속 금융기관의 도산위험이 대체로 낮은 것으로 나타나며, 겸업화 효과보다는 대형화에 의한 수익성 및 수익 변동성 개선효과가 유의하게 나타나는 것으로 분석되었다. 따라서 아직까지 우리나라에서 고위험 추구를 통한 대형 금융그룹의 위험상승 현상은 관측되지 않고 있다. 그러나 대형 은행그룹 간 직간접적 상호의존도가 높아짐에 따라 시스템 위험의 발생 가능 성이 증대되고, 겸업화로 비은행부문 및 자본시장으로부터의 위험전이 가능성도 높아지고 있어 이에 대한 정책대응이 요구된다. 특히 금융그룹을 하나의 동일체로 인식하고 그룹단위로 건전성 규제 등을 실시하는 위험 중심의 연결감독체제가 확립될 필요가 있으며, 겸업화로 인한 공적 안전망의 확대를 효과적으로 차단하기 위한 감독장치도 마련될 필요가 있다. 아울러 금융그룹의 내부통제 및 위험관리체제를 강화하고, 경영투명성의 제고를 통해 금융그룹에 대한 시장의 모니터링 기능도 확충할 필요가 있다.
Abstract
This paper studies implications of financial conglomeration for both financial risk of individual conglomerates and systemic risk potential in post-crisis Korea. Our analyses suggest that we cannot conclude that financial conglomerates are taking on higher risks relative to non-conglomerate independent institutions. We also find that larger financial institutions show a significantly higher profitability and lower variability in profitability operating on a superior efficient frontier. However, it turns out that the consolidation has raised systemic risk potential as direct and indirect interdependencies among large banking institutions have substantially increased. Furthermore, financial conglomerates have become more vulnerable to contagion risks from non-bank sectors and capital markets. In the face of the shifting risk structure, financial supervisory and regulatory systems must be upgraded toward a more risk-based, consolidated supervision. Prompt corrective action provision for financial conglomerates must be based upon fully consolidated group risks, and effective supervisory devices need to be introduced to avoid inadvertent extension of public safety net to cross-sectoral activities of financial conglomerates. It is also critical to strengthen internal control and risk management capacities at financial conglomerates, and to establish strong market discipline by improving information transparency and monitoring incentives in the financial market.
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