가구구조 변화가 서비스 수요에 미치는 효과 분석
The Effects of Changes in Household Structure on Service Consumption in Korea
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초록
본 연구는 저출산․고령화의 진전과 여성 경제활동참여 증대 등에 따른 가구구조 변화가 가계생산에 영향을 주어 서비스 수요를 변화시키는 효과를 분석한다. 특히 기존에 가계생산에 의존하던 가사노동 및 돌봄서비스 등을 시장서비스로 대체하는 과정에서 추가적인 서비스 수요가 발생할 수 있음을 이론적․실증적으로 분석하고 있다. 우선 3부문 시간배분모형을 통해 가계생산의 시장화가 서비스산업의 확장을 가져오는 메커니즘을 이론적으로 탐색하였다. 다음으로, 우리나라 가구구조 변화가 각 소비항목별 수요에 미치는 효과를 분석하기 위해 QUAIDS 수요분석모형에 따른 엥겔곡선을 추정하였다. 분석자료로는 「가계동향조사」를 이용하였다. 분석 결과에 따르면, 단신가구의 증가, 유배우가구의 감소, 6세 미만 자녀 가구의 감소와 같은 가구 구성의 변화, 그리고 맞벌이가구의 증가 등은 의료비, 교육훈련비, 가사서비스 등 전형적으로 가계생산서비스를 대체하는 시장서비스에 대한 수요를 증가시키고 있는 것으로 분석되었다.
Abstract
This paper investigates the effects of changes in household structure on service demand. The structure of households in Korea has been quickly changed due to low birth rate and population aging as well as increasing women’s participation in the workforce. Their consumption patterns may have been altered by the structural changes. This paper focuses on the additional demand for market services replacing household activities such as household chores and care services. First, using a 3-sector time allocation model, we theoretically analyze the mechanism that marketization of household production can lead to the expansion of service industries. Next, in order to analyze the effects of changes in household structure on consumption demand, we estimate the Engel curves according to the QUAIDS model. For empirical work, the Survey of Household Finances was used. According to the results, structural changes in Korean households, such as an increase in single-person households, a decrease in families with a spouse or children under 6 years old, and an increase in dual-earner households, have caused an increase in medical expenses, education and training costs, and expenses for household services, which are typically substitutes for household production services.
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