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세계금융위기 이후 경제학 이론 및 방법론 논쟁 : 교훈과 정책적 함의

Debates on Theory and Methodology of Economics after the Global Financial Crisis: Lessons and Policy Implications

이왕휘
한국경제의 분석패널 (Panel for Korean Economic Analysis)|2014.08|한국경제의 분석 (Journal of Korean Economic Analysis)|제20권 제2호|pp. 47-122

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참고문헌

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방법론이론TheoryIMFMethodologyGlobal Financial Crisis세계금융위기경제학국제통화기금(IMF)Economics지적 포획Intellectual Capture
주제분류경제학

초록

이 글은 2007년 발생한 세계금융위기 이후 경제학 이론 및 방법론에 대한 논쟁을 검토한다. 경제학–특히 거시경제학과 금융경제학–이 대공황 이후 가장 심각한 위기로 평가되는 이번 금융위기의 예측에 실패한 것은 물론 적절한 대응책을 조기에 제공하지 못했다는 사실은 최고의 사회과학으로 군림해온 경제학의 위상과 명성에 심대한 타격을 주었다. 과학으로서 경제학에 대한 회의론이 확산되면서, 현재 주류로 간주되는 신고전파 경제학의 이론과 방법론에 대한 근본적인 재검토가 이뤄지고 있다. 주류 경제학에 대한 비판은 주요 선진국들과 국제경제기구들에서 활용하고 있는 경제정책의 이론적 및 정치적 정당성도 심각하게 약화시키고 있다. 그 결과 주류 경제학자들이 부정적으로 보거나 또는 금기시하던 비전통적인 정책들에 대한 재평가가 이루어지고 있다. 이러한 변화는 위기 이후 국제통화기금(IMF)의 통화·재정·금융규제·자본통제 정책에 반영되어 있다. 실제로 이번 위기 이후 IMF가 취한 정책은 1997년 동아시아 금융위기에 대한 처방과는 여러 가지 측면에서 차이점이 있다. 먼저 거시안정화 정책에서 IMF는 구제금융을 지원받은 태국, 인도네시아, 한국에 고금리 정책과 긴축재정을 요구한 반면, 이번 위기 이후에는 주요 회원국들에게 저금리 정책과 재정부양책을 권고하였다. 또한 금융개혁을 위해 IMF는 동아시아 국가들에게 대규모 구조조정, 자본계정자유화와 변동환율제를 요구한 반면, 이번 위기 이후에는 영미권 금융기관들에 대한 구조조정 압력은 사실상 없었다. 더 나아가 IMF의 대주주라고 할 수 있는 영국과 독일은 IMF 주도의 정책공조를 따르지 않았다. 이러한 강대국들의 입장 차이는 IMF의 정책권고안이 엄밀한 과학적 방법론에 의해 검증된 경제학 이론보다는 특정 국가에 유리한 정치적 고려가 반영되어 있다는 의혹을 사기에 충분하다. 그 결과 IMF가 정책방향을 제시할 수 있는 정치적 정당성이 약화되었다. 이런 점에서 IMF의 정책전환은 국제기준 또는 모범규준으로 포장된 유행이나 대세를 추종하기보다는 각국의 실정에 부합하는 정책과 제도를 개발하려는 정책소유권의 중요성을 재확인시켜 준다. 이를 위해서는 강대국들과 국제경제기구의 권위와 명성에 압도되는 지적 포획에 주의할 필요가 있다. 마지막으로 IMF의 정책전환은 동아시아 금융위기–더 근본적으로는 동아시아 모형–를 재평가할 수 있는 기회를 제공한다. 이러한 재평가는 궁극적으로 우리 실정에 맞지 않거나, 효과가 없거나 역효과를 낳는 것으로 판명된 정책들의 수정·보완·폐기에 기여할 수 있다.

Abstract

This essay reviews recent debates on theory and methodology of economics after the financial crisis in 2007. The status and reputation of economics as the primer social science have been hit hard by the fact that mainstream economists failed both to predict and to provide appropriate responses to the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. At the same time, unconventional policies, which had been negatively regarded or disregarded by mainstream economists, are now under re-evaluation. Both the critique of economics － especially macroecono -mics and financial economics－and the policy re-evaluation give rise to rethinking mainstream theory and methodology from the bottom up. As the scientific credential of economics has sharply eroded, its ideological biases have been exposed to a considerable degree. To understand policy implications of the crisis of economics, this essay analyses IMF's monetary, fiscal, financial regulation, and capital controls policy in the post-crisis period. In terms of IMF's prescriptions, there are a couple of differences between the East Asian financial crisis and the global financial crisis. When it comes to macroeconomic stabilization, the IMF recommended high interest rate policy and fiscal tightening to Thailand, Indonesia and Korea while key members were allowed by the fund to lower interest rates and to use fiscal stimulus. On financial reform, the fund required the crisis affected countries to implement large-scale restructuring, capital account liberalization and floating exchange rates in the East Asian economies. In the wake of the recent crisis, on the other hand, virtually no pressure was put on Anglo-American financial institutions. Further, major shareholders of the fund－especially the UK and Germany－did not followed IMF-led policy coordination. Conflicts of policy choice among major economic powers lead us to suspect that IMF’s policy recommendations are influen- ced by political consideration, are not based on economic theories verified by scientific methodology. As a result, the legitimacy of IMF policy guidance has been severely weakened. By the same token, the post-crisis policy shift provides a good reason for developing economies to claim more policy ownership. In this respect, IMF’s policy shift after the global financial crisis re-confirms the importance of policy ownership by warning against following a fad or consensus in the name of global standards or best practices. To do so, it is necessary to avoid intellectual capture by the authority and reputation of major advanced economies and international economic institutions. Finally, IMF’s policy shift gives a chance to rethink the East Asian financial crisis and the East Asian developmental model. Re-examination of the IMF-supported programmes in East Asia can contribute to revise, supplement or disregard policies that proved to be irrelevant, ineffective, and counter-productive.

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