개인 워크아웃제도의 유효성 분석

Abstract

This study evaluates the effectiveness of Individual Workout Program (IWP) using the original program user dataset provided the Credit Counseling and Recovery Service (CCRS). The estimated Kaplan-Meier survival function shows that user survival rate declines sharply until 24th month of payment and then stabilizes to a slight declining trend afterwards. The survival functions incrementally shift up for the entrants in the year 2003 and after and therefore the survival rate improves for all payment periods. The survival functions for the entrants in the year 2007 and after are stabilized. The estimation of Cox proportional hazard model indicates that risk of default rises with higher payment to monthly income plan, higher age, smaller number of dependents, lower rate of debt exemption, longer the payment schedule, and greater total scheduled payment. Even after controlling for the individual characteristics, we find that applicants with lower default risk entered the program as years have passed. This finding contrasts with the worries and expectation that provision of public and private credit recovery programs could incur moral hazard and produce numerous highly risky individuals. Of the differences in survival rates before and after the year 2006, 85.9 percent can be explained by the entrant year cohort effect, while the individual characteristics of entrants accounts for only 14.1 percent.