자동긴급제동장치의 고령운전자 추돌사고 감소 효과 추정
Estimation of Road Crash Reduction by Installing Automatic Emergency Braking Systems for Elderly Drivers
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고령 운전자는 다른 연령대에 비해 사망사고 유발 가능성이 높다. 2021년 교통사고 통계에따르면 고령 운전자 1만 명당 유발한 사망자수가 1.77로 30대 운전자 0.55에 비해 2.67배 높다. 본 연구는 자동긴급제동장치(Automatic Emergency Braking System, AEBS) 설치로 고령 운전자의 추돌사고 유발 가능성을 얼마나 낮출 수 있는지 파악하기 위해 시도되었다. 이를 위해 자동차보험 데이터를 활용하여 자동긴급제동장치가 장착한 차량이 그렇지 않은 차량에 비해 얼마나 추돌사고 발생률이 낮은지 통계적 기법으로 분석하였다. 그 결과 자동긴급제동장치를 장착한 차량과 그렇지 않은 차량의 교통사고 유발 오즈비가 0.75에 그쳐 사고감소 효과가 분명히있는 것으로 나타났다. 성별로는 남성 운전자가 0.78로 여성 운전자 0.81에 비해 사고감소 효과가 컸다. 연령별로도 65세 이상의 오즈비가 0.76으로 분석되어 교통사고 감소 효과가 있는 것으로 나타났다. 특히 남성 고령운전자가 0.49로 감소효과가 가장 높았다. 향후 고령운전자를대상으로 자동긴급제동장치 장착 차량을 운전할 경우 보험료 할인 등 혜택을 부여한다면 추돌사고를 예방하는데 도움이 될 것으로 보인다.
Abstract
It is largely agreed that elderly drivers (over 64 years) are more likely to cause fatal crashes than other age groups. According to national road crash statistics 2021, the number of road fatalities per 10,000 drivers over 64 years old was 1.77, while that of drivers in their 30s was 0.55. This indicates a 2.67 times higher probability of causing crashes among the former than the latter. The current study estimates how rear-end crashes may be reduced by installing Automatic Emergency Braking Systems (AEBS), particularly for elderly drivers. We analyzed data from Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance. The results show that the Odds Ratio of rear-end crash occurrence between vehicles with AEBS and without AEBS is 0.75, implying there were lesser rear-end crashes in the vehicles installed with AEBS. The Odds Ratio of male drivers was determined to be 0.78, which was lesser than the 0.81 Odds Ratio obtained for female drivers. Elderly drivers who had installed AEBS in their vehicles showed an Odds Ratio of 0.76, implying crash reduction. In particular, the Odds Ratio of male elderly drivers was found to be the lowest at 0.49. We believe incentivizing by giving discounted insurance premiums to the elderly who drive vehicles installed with AEBS will help reduce rear-end crashes.
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