Understanding the Reasons behind Egypt’s Failed Transition to Democracy after the Arab Spring
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This paper investigates the reasons behind Egyptians abandoning their support for democracy in 2013, only two years after staging major protests demanding regime change in ‘Tahrir Square’ in 2011. The article’s basic argument is based on the notions of bounded rationality as well as recent breakthroughs in the field of cognitive heuristics. Then shows how several cues created by domestic and regional events induced stronger security and stability demands. This paper attempts to identify a significant causal relationship between the perception of threat among Egyptians during the transition period and the withdrawal of support for democracy using six Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models. In particular, this article helps the readers understand the significant change in Egyptian public opinion in the time of democratic opening following the removal of Mubarak and the removal of Morsi. The research demonstrates this argument via public opinion polls done by Arab Barometer and Pew center to measure public opinion about democracy. The study shows how the public paid close attention to powerful and intense occurrences, which prompted a preference for the strong man model system of government. Fear of Islamists pushed the public masses to update their preferences and seek the help of the old regime alliances, then reintroduce authoritarianism. Support for democracy has fallen and conditional support for anti-democratic leaders has risen significantly. With these overall shifts, one can also see important changes in the bases of democratic support.
Abstract
This paper investigates the reasons behind Egyptians abandoning their support for democracy in 2013, only two years after staging major protests demanding regime change in ‘Tahrir Square’ in 2011. The article’s basic argument is based on the notions of bounded rationality as well as recent breakthroughs in the field of cognitive heuristics. Then shows how several cues created by domestic and regional events induced stronger security and stability demands. This paper attempts to identify a significant causal relationship between the perception of threat among Egyptians during the transition period and the withdrawal of support for democracy using six Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models. In particular, this article helps the readers understand the significant change in Egyptian public opinion in the time of democratic opening following the removal of Mubarak and the removal of Morsi. The research demonstrates this argument via public opinion polls done by Arab Barometer and Pew center to measure public opinion about democracy. The study shows how the public paid close attention to powerful and intense occurrences, which prompted a preference for the strong man model system of government. Fear of Islamists pushed the public masses to update their preferences and seek the help of the old regime alliances, then reintroduce authoritarianism. Support for democracy has fallen and conditional support for anti-democratic leaders has risen significantly. With these overall shifts, one can also see important changes in the bases of democratic support.
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