Prediction of long-term wind speed and capacity factor using Measure-Correlate-Predict method
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초록
Long-term variationsinwindspeedandcapacityfactor(CF)onSeongsanwindfarm ofJejuIsland,SouthKorea werederivedstatistically.TheselectedareasforthisstudywereSubji,havingayearwinddataat30m above groundlevel,Sinsan,having 30-yearwinddataat10m abovegroundlevelandSeongsanwindfarm,where long-term CFwaspredicted.TheMeasure-Correlate-PredictmoduleofWindPRO wasusedtopredictlong-tem windcharacteristicsatSeongsanwindfarm.Eachyear’sCFwasderivedfrom theestimated30-yeartimeseries winddatabyrunningWAsPmodule.Asaresult,forthe30-yearCFs,Seongsanwindfarm wasestimatedtohave 8.3% forthecoefficientofvariation,CV,and-16.5% ∼ 13.2% fortherangeofvariation,RV.Itwaspredicted thattheannualCF atSeongsanwindfarm variedwithinabout±4%.
Abstract
Long-term variationsinwindspeedandcapacityfactor(CF)onSeongsanwindfarm ofJejuIsland,SouthKorea werederivedstatistically.TheselectedareasforthisstudywereSubji,havingayearwinddataat30m above groundlevel,Sinsan,having 30-yearwinddataat10m abovegroundlevelandSeongsanwindfarm,where long-term CFwaspredicted.TheMeasure-Correlate-PredictmoduleofWindPRO wasusedtopredictlong-tem windcharacteristicsatSeongsanwindfarm.Eachyear’sCFwasderivedfrom theestimated30-yeartimeseries winddatabyrunningWAsPmodule.Asaresult,forthe30-yearCFs,Seongsanwindfarm wasestimatedtohave 8.3% forthecoefficientofvariation,CV,and-16.5% ∼ 13.2% fortherangeofvariation,RV.Itwaspredicted thattheannualCF atSeongsanwindfarm variedwithinabout±4%.
참고문헌 (13)
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