DeRiskbeta: Comparative Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of fuel oil, LNG, methanol, and ammonia on a 15,000 TEU containership
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To reduce carbon emissions, the maritime industry is transitioning to alternative low- or zero-carbon fuels, but this shift also introduces significant design, economic, and safety challenges. This paper focuses on safety, particularly the need to demonstrate equivalence to conventional fuels. A comparative Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of a 15,000 TEU containership using fuel oil, LNG, methanol, and ammonia was conducted with the DeRiskbeta tool. The QRA evaluates both fuel-specific and overall risks, as-sessing key fuel-related hazards (fires, explosions, and toxic exposures) and other non-fuel-related hazards (collisions, contacts, groundings, and foundering). The results indicate that LNG increases fuel-specific risk fivefold due to explosion and jet fire hazards, though overall risk remains marginally higher. Methanol exhibits a risk level similar to fuel oil. Ammonia presents the highest risk, with a 22-fold increase in fuel-specific risk and a 23% rise in overall societal risk due to its toxicity. These findings highlight the need for additional risk mitigation for ammonia to achieve equivalent safety. The study provides valuable insights to support decision-making in safe ship design and fuel selection.
Abstract
To reduce carbon emissions, the maritime industry is transitioning to alternative low- or zero-carbon fuels, but this shift also introduces significant design, economic, and safety challenges. This paper focuses on safety, particularly the need to demonstrate equivalence to conventional fuels. A comparative Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of a 15,000 TEU containership using fuel oil, LNG, methanol, and ammonia was conducted with the DeRiskbeta tool. The QRA evaluates both fuel-specific and overall risks, as-sessing key fuel-related hazards (fires, explosions, and toxic exposures) and other non-fuel-related hazards (collisions, contacts, groundings, and foundering). The results indicate that LNG increases fuel-specific risk fivefold due to explosion and jet fire hazards, though overall risk remains marginally higher. Methanol exhibits a risk level similar to fuel oil. Ammonia presents the highest risk, with a 22-fold increase in fuel-specific risk and a 23% rise in overall societal risk due to its toxicity. These findings highlight the need for additional risk mitigation for ammonia to achieve equivalent safety. The study provides valuable insights to support decision-making in safe ship design and fuel selection.