Comparative analysis of EU ETS, FuelEU maritime and IMO carbon pricing regulations: Strategic and economic implications for the shipping industry
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This paper evaluates the strategic and economic implications of the FuelEU Maritime regulation and the inclusion of shipping in the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and International Maritime Organization Greenhouse Gas Fuel Intensity (IMO GFI) through scenario-based analysis of a Pure Car and Truck Carrier (PCTC). Using real-world operational data, four compliance strategies are modelled: (1) conventional operation with fossil fuels (baseline), (2) e-diesel adoption, (3) route optimization, and (4) wind-assisted propulsion system (WAPS). The analysis compares each scenario's alignment with FuelEU Maritime and EU ETS targets, highlighting variations in greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity, regulatory penalties, and Emission Unit Allowance (EUA) costs. Findings demonstrate that e-diesel adoption achieves the highest regulatory alignment, fully meeting FuelEU Maritime intensity thresholds and minimising EU ETS costs, while conventional operations incur substantial penalties. Route optimization, though theoretically promising, increases overall fuel consumption and exacerbates EU ETS exposure, underscoring the limitations of evasive routing without emissions reduction. Wind-assisted propulsion provides moderate GHG savings but remains undervalued under current regulatory crediting mechanisms. Policy implications suggest that harmonised regulations and enhanced credit recognition for innovative technologies are critical for sustainable compliance. This study contributes to strategic decision-making, offering insights into costeffective and resilient pathways for decarbonising maritime operations under evolving climate regulations.
Abstract
This paper evaluates the strategic and economic implications of the FuelEU Maritime regulation and the inclusion of shipping in the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and International Maritime Organization Greenhouse Gas Fuel Intensity (IMO GFI) through scenario-based analysis of a Pure Car and Truck Carrier (PCTC). Using real-world operational data, four compliance strategies are modelled: (1) conventional operation with fossil fuels (baseline), (2) e-diesel adoption, (3) route optimization, and (4) wind-assisted propulsion system (WAPS). The analysis compares each scenario's alignment with FuelEU Maritime and EU ETS targets, highlighting variations in greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity, regulatory penalties, and Emission Unit Allowance (EUA) costs. Findings demonstrate that e-diesel adoption achieves the highest regulatory alignment, fully meeting FuelEU Maritime intensity thresholds and minimising EU ETS costs, while conventional operations incur substantial penalties. Route optimization, though theoretically promising, increases overall fuel consumption and exacerbates EU ETS exposure, underscoring the limitations of evasive routing without emissions reduction. Wind-assisted propulsion provides moderate GHG savings but remains undervalued under current regulatory crediting mechanisms. Policy implications suggest that harmonised regulations and enhanced credit recognition for innovative technologies are critical for sustainable compliance. This study contributes to strategic decision-making, offering insights into costeffective and resilient pathways for decarbonising maritime operations under evolving climate regulations.