농촌의 마을소멸지수 개발 및 적용 - 충청남도를 대상으로 -

Abstract

The sense of crisis regarding regional extinction due to low birth rates and an aging population is expanding. Generally, the local extinction index is used to analyze local extinction. However, it is challenging to diagnose the actual situation of village extinction risk in rural areas, even though the regional extinction index can be analyzed in units such as Si-Gun-Gu and Eup-Myeon-Dong. This difficulty arises because the regional extinction index solely relies on natural population growth indicators (elderly population and female population aged 20-39). Therefore, the purpose of this study is to develop a village extinction index that can identify the disappearance of rural villages. Additionally, the aim is to apply the developed indicators to the village (administrative ri) spatial unit. The existing regional extinction index used only mortality-related indicators as factors for natural population decline and fertility-related indicators as factors for natural population growth. However, the developed village extinction index included not only the factors of natural population change but also incorporated social population growth factors and factors related to the pace of village extinction. This is the key difference between the developed village extinction index and the existing regional extinction index. In this study, the indicators of "total population," "number of young women aged 20-44," "number of elderly population aged 70 or older," and "number of incoming population" were selected to develop a village extinction index. The village extinction index was developed by incorporating both natural population growth indicators and social population growth indicators. The developed village extinction index was applied to administrative villages. This research is expected to provide a more accurate understanding of the current state of rural villages facing extinction.