농촌 군(읍․면)의 지방소멸지표 비교분석을 통한 소멸지역 도출 연구

Abstract

Population decline in South Korea is expected to occur in specific generations and universally across all age groups. Notably, a rapid decrease in population is predicted in small provincial cities, with a negative population growth rate and a significant decline anticipated. Among the population composition, the proportion of individuals aged 65 and older is expected to increase sharply every year, with the near future seeing half of the population comprised of elderly individuals. This demographic shift is expected to have a profound impact on various fields across the entire country. The combination of population decline and aging is expected to lead to a severe deterioration of the local extinction index in rural areas (counties and townships), bringing them to the brink of practical extinction shortly. In response to this, the present study focuses on ten regions deemed at risk of extinction in the country (Goryeong County, Seongju County, Yecheon County, Uljin County, Cheongsong County, Yesan County, Youngyang County, Yeongdeok County, Bonghwa County, and Cheongdo County). It analyzes the regional extinction risk index, limit village index, and next-generation resilience index for townships and counties, deriving the current status of meeting the criteria for local extinction diagnosis. Furthermore, the study aims to assess future areas at risk of local extinction, proposing policy implications for rejuvenating such regions.