대통령의 수사와 언론 보도, 지지도의 상관관계 : 노무현 대통령 사례 시계열분석
President’s Issue Management, Media’s Coverage and Presidential Approval : A Time-series Analysis
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초록
연구는 대통령의 말과 대통령에 관한 언론의 보도, 그리고 대통령 지지도가 서로 어떤 관계를 형성하는지 탐구하기 위해 노무현 대통령의 임기 중 전반기에 해당하 는 약 3년(2003년 3월∼2005년 12월)에서 추출한 관련 시계열 데이터를 대상으로 VAR 모 형분석과 시계열 회귀분석을 수행했다. 연구결과, 언론의 대통령 비판 및 공격이 대통령의 지지도 하락과 관계가 있는 것으로 나타났으며, 노무현 대통령 임기 중 보수 신문의 대통령 에 관한 부정적 보도가 대통령의 신뢰도 및 지지도의 하락과 연관이 있을 것이라는 세간의 추론을 일정 정도 실증적으로 뒷받침했다. 둘째 ꡔ조선일보ꡕ의 노무현 대통령 비판 기사뿐만 아니라 ꡔ한겨레ꡕ와 KBS의 대통령 관련기사가 증가할수록 대통령의 지지도는 하락하는 것 으로 나타났으며, 또한 대통령의 말, 수사가 늘어날수록 지지도는 오히려 떨어진 것으로 나타났다. 이것은 대통령의 언론 노출 또는 대통령의 대국민 발언 및 노출은 노출 그 자체로 지지도 하락과 어느 정도 상관관계가 있음을 시사하는 것으로 대통령의 노출 관리의 필요성 을 제기하고 있다. 셋째, 통제변인으로 사용한 경제 상황 변인과 대통령 탄핵변인은 일관되 게 지지도 변화량에 긍정적으로 영향을 미쳤으며, 이는 현실지수가 대통령 지지도에 영향을 준다는 선행연구 결과들과 일맥상통한다. 넷째, 언론의 대통령 보도 태도는 대통령 지지도 변화의 영향을 그다지 받지 않는 것으로 나타났는데, 이것은 노무현 정부 당시 언론과 대통 령의 고착된 갈등과 적대 구조에서 비롯된 것으로 해석했다. 결론 부분에서 대통령 보도와 이슈 관리, 지지도 간의 시계열분석의 가능성과 한계를 논의했다.
Abstract
This research explored the interactional relationship among media’s presidential coverage, president’s issue management and presidential approval during the presidency of Roh Moo-hyun(March, 2003-December, 2005). Employing time series Vector Autoregression(VAR) analysis and time series regression analysis, the project, first of all, uncovered the influence of the negative presidential coverage by the media has on the decrease in presidential approval rate. Second, the increased frequency itself of presidential things in the media, including KBS(Korean public broadcasting) and Hankyoreh(liberal newspaper favorable to the president), had a negative impact on the presidential approval. It is in accordance with the findings that the presidential approval rate has decreased as the president talked more. It commands that president’s exposure to the media and the public need to be managed. Third, the reality variables, including economic condition and presidential impeachment attempted by the congress, affected the presidential approval. Forth, the media’s attitudes toward the president in the coverage were not affected by the change in president’s approval rate, which attribute to the hostile relationship between the president and the media. The possibilities and limitation of time series analysis in exploring the interactional relationship between media coverage and presidential approval were discussed.
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