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복합 기후리스크의 변혁적 관리 필요성 분석을 위한 자연기반 적응의 효과 평가

Assessing the Limits of Nature-based Adaptation and Need for Transformational Management of Multiple Hazard Climate Risks

현정희
한국보험학회 (Korean Insurance Academic Society)|2023.07|보험학회지 (KOREAN JOURNAL OF INSURANCE)|제135호|pp. 1-31

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참고문헌

키워드

다목적 최적화multi-objective optimization기후변화 적응경로적응의 한계재난 리스크 관리자연기반 적응리스크 레이어링(risk-layering)Climate adaptation pathwayslimits to adaptationdisaster risk managementnature-based adaptationrisk-layering
주제분류경영학

초록

기후변화의 가속화로 극심한 기상 현상의 심각성과 빈도가 증가함에 따라 치명적인 피해 및 경제적 손실이 회복 불가능한 수준으로 커지고 있다. 기후변화 적응의 중요성이 증가함에도 불구하고, 실제로 실행되는 대응 조치와 정책 수는 부족한 상황이 계속되고 있다. 이러한 간극의 원인은 과학적 복잡성과 미래 예측의 불확실성으로 인해 발생하는 높은 위험의 의사결정 문제에 기인하다. 본 논문은 적응경로를 모델링하는 의사결정 지원 도구를 적용하여, 서울 지역의 복합 기후리스크에 대한 적응의 장기적 효과를 평가하였다. 2020년부터 2100년까지의 예측된기후영향을 고려하여, 도시 열섬 및 홍수 위험을 줄이는 기존 적응옵션과 자연기반의 적응옵션을 적응경로로 나열하고 최소화된 영향과 비용에 따라 최적화하였다. 적응경로의 파레토 포트폴리오를 통해 나타나는 적응(리스크 저감)의 한계에 따라, 재정적 보호 및 대응과 같은 변혁적 조치가 얼마나 필요한지를 확인할 수 있다. 본 논문은 하향식 적응 모델링을 통한 리스크 레이어링(risk-layering) 개념과 통합하여, 현재 시점의 지출과 미래를 위한 투자를 어느 정도, 어느 시점에 할 것인가에 대한 변혁적인 리스크 관리 방법과 프레임워크를 제공하고자 한다.

Abstract

With the severity and frequency of extreme weather events increasing due to the acceleration of climate change, damages incurred as fatal and economic losses are becoming irrecoverable. Despite the growing importance of adaptation to climate change, there remains a large gap in the number and scale of implemented actions and policies. One of the main reasons for such a slow uptake is due to the complexity of the science and uncertainty of future projections thus a high-risk decision- making problem. This paper applies a decision-making support tool that models adaptation pathways to evaluate the long-term effects of adaptation in reducing the impact of multi-hazard risks for the case of Seoul, South Korea. Conventional and nature-based urban heat and flood risk reducing adaptation options are sequenced as pathways against projected climate impacts from 2020 to 2100 and optimized according to minimized impact and cost. According to the pareto portfolio of adaptation pathways, the hard limits of adaptation (risk-reduction) will identify the degree to which transformative measures such as fiscal protection and response is needed. By integrating bottom-up adaptation modeling with the concept of risk-layering, this paper aims to provide a method and framework to guide the question of how much and in what proportion to spend now vs. invest for the future to drive transformational risk management.

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