생체연령을 고려한 퇴직연금 프로그램 인출방식에 관한 연구
A Study on Programmed Withdrawal of Retirement Pension Considering Biological Age
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본 연구는 퇴직연금 인출단계 활성화 차원에서 국민건강보험공단의 건강검진 데이터를 활용하여 개인 사망률 예측을 위한 로지스틱 회귀모형, 연령대 별 대수적 평균사망률, 그리고 모수적 생존분석 모형을 적용하여 생체연령별 기대여명을 도출하고 이를 적용한 프로그램인출률을 산정하였다. 프로그램인출률 산정결과 남성은 주민등록 상 연령대별 건강상태에 따른 프로그램인출률의 편차가 8.9~21.6%%p, 여성의 경우 6.2~17.5%p로 나타났다. 이처럼 동일연령이지만 건강상태에 따른 기대여명 및 프로그램인출률의 편차가 존재하며, 여성에 비해 기대여명이 짧은 남성의 프로그램인출률 수준 및 그 편차가 크게 나타났다. 따라서 퇴직연금의 인출단계에서 성별, 개인별 건강상태를 고려한 합리적인 프로그램인출률 산정이 중요하다는 점을 시사한다. 또한 생체연령을 이용하여 다양한 보험 및 금융상품의 개발도 활성화 될 필요가 있다.
Abstract
In order to diversify the retirement pension withdrawal stages, this study utilizes the National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort(NHIS-NSC) data to predict individual mortality rate by using logistic regression model, apply algebraic average mortality rate by age group and parametric survival analysis model to derive life expectancy by biological age, and finally calculate the programmed withdrawal rate. As a result, the variation of the withdrawal rate according to the health status of men by resident registration based age group was 8.9 to 21.6%p, and 6.2 to 17.5%p for women. As such, there were variations in life expectancy and programmed withdrawal rates depending on health conditions even though they were of the same age. Also, the level and deviation of program withdrawal rate for men with shorter life expectancy compared to women were significant. Therefore, the study implies that it is important to have a rational financial plan that considers gender and individual health status when calculating the programmed withdrawal rate at the stage of retirement pension withdrawl. In addition, it stresses the necessity to accelerate the development of various insurance and financial products based on biological ages.
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