미국중소기업청 보증 대출프로그램의 고용 효과
The employment effects of the U.S. SBA guaranteed small business loans
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이 연구는 2010년부터 2016년까지의 7년간 미국 카운티 패널 데이터를 활용하여 미국 중소기업청(SBA)의 대표적인 연방보증 대출프로그램인 SBA 7(a)와 SBA 504의 고용 효과를 지역 특성별로 분석하였다. 특히, 저소득 및 소수자 비율이 높은 카운티에서 SBA 보증 대출이 고용에 미치는 영향을 중점적으로 검토했다. 분석 결과, SBA 보증 대출이 고용 증가에 기여한다는 확고한 증거를 찾을 수는 없으나, 지역의 인종, 소득 및 위치적 특성과 SBA 프로그램의 성격에 따라 그 효과가 다르게 나타남을 확인할 수 있었다. 특히, 소수자 비율이 높은 지역은 소득수준과 프로그램에 따라 고용 효과가 달랐다. 소득수준이 높은 지역은 SBA 7(a) 대출 증가와 고용률 상승 간의 긍정적인 상관관계가 있었으나, 소득수준이 낮은 지역에서는 그러한 효과를 발견하지 못했다. 반면, 소수자 비율과 소득수준이 높은 지역에서 SBA 504 대출의 증가는 고용률 감소와 연관되어 있었다. 더불어, SBA 대출의 증가와 고용률 간의 관계에는 비선형적 특성이 있음을 확인하였으며, 이는 지역적 특성에 따라 자본 유입에 대한 반응이 다르다는 점을 시사한다.
Abstract
This study examines the employment effects of government-guaranteed small business lending programs by communities’ characteristics. Using the U.S. Small Business Administration(SBA)’s small business lending programs and the seven-year county panels from 2010 to 2016, this study tests whether SBA lending had a larger impact on counties with lower incomes and/or a higher share of minorities. The findings showed little evidence of a positive impact of SBA loans on employment. However, when looking into the effects of SBA lending by communities’ race, income, and location, there was some heterogeneity across communities. Specifically, the effects of an increase in the SBA 7(a) loan amount per capita were positive for upper- or middle-income minority counties but negative for low- or moderate-income minority counties in rural areas. An increase in SBA 504 loan amount had no effect on most communities, but employment for upper- or middle-income minority counties decreased with an increase in SBA 504 in both urban and rural areas. Also, this study finds some nonlinearity in the effects of increasing the SBA loan amount, which suggest urban and rural areas respond to capital inflow differently, and the amount of SBA loans they need for employment growth varies considerably.
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