China’s Search for Grand Strategy after the Cold War and the Future of the Korean Peninsula
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The nature of China’s rise in the 21st century world is one of the most important questions for East Asia and the future of the Korean peninsula. Judging from various signs of Chinese assertiveness emerging after America’s Great Recession broke out in 2008, Chinese grand strategy, if any, seems to be shifting from Peaceful Rise advocated to ensure a smooth economic development to Near-shore Balancing toward Regional Hegemony designed to deter the U.S. from approaching near Chinese shores in Asia. This shift may well reflect China’s rising power itself and its perceptions about a relative decline of American power especially in the wake of the sudden financial crisis. I have selected four most important constraints on Chinese grand strategy: history, geopolitics, economy and domestic politics. In comparative terms, Chinese history and politics set more constraints on intentions and styles of Chinese grand strategy whereas Chinese geopolitics and economy set more constrains on power and capabilities. From these I also have discerned four contending visions of Chinese grand strategy: Sino-centric nationalism, realism, globalism, and Confucianism as soft power. Of these, nationalism and realism seems to exert more influence than globalism and Confucianism insofar as the overall direction of Chinese grand strategy is concerned. The direction of Chinese grand strategy evolving from these diverse trends can best be described as what I call Near-shore Balancing toward Regional Hegemony. The advent of this new strategy may conflict with America’s grand strategy called Offshore Balancing in East Asia which is designed to keep one power from dominating the region especially when the U.S. now tries to “come back to Asia” by reinforcing its forward deployments. South Korea finds itself in increasing rivalry between these “two dreams sharing the same bed”: China’s quest for a unipolar Asia via building a Sino-centric and exclusive East Asian Community and America’s quest for a multipolar Asia via fostering a Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) toward a Pacific Community. South Korea has little choice but strengthening its security alliance with U.S. and expanding its thrusts for economic globalization via free trade agreements while attempting by all means to build strong bridges with China and other powers by deepening common economic and strategic interests.
Abstract
The nature of China’s rise in the 21st century world is one of the most important questions for East Asia and the future of the Korean peninsula. Judging from various signs of Chinese assertiveness emerging after America’s Great Recession broke out in 2008, Chinese grand strategy, if any, seems to be shifting from Peaceful Rise advocated to ensure a smooth economic development to Near-shore Balancing toward Regional Hegemony designed to deter the U.S. from approaching near Chinese shores in Asia. This shift may well reflect China’s rising power itself and its perceptions about a relative decline of American power especially in the wake of the sudden financial crisis. I have selected four most important constraints on Chinese grand strategy: history, geopolitics, economy and domestic politics. In comparative terms, Chinese history and politics set more constraints on intentions and styles of Chinese grand strategy whereas Chinese geopolitics and economy set more constrains on power and capabilities. From these I also have discerned four contending visions of Chinese grand strategy: Sino-centric nationalism, realism, globalism, and Confucianism as soft power. Of these, nationalism and realism seems to exert more influence than globalism and Confucianism insofar as the overall direction of Chinese grand strategy is concerned. The direction of Chinese grand strategy evolving from these diverse trends can best be described as what I call Near-shore Balancing toward Regional Hegemony. The advent of this new strategy may conflict with America’s grand strategy called Offshore Balancing in East Asia which is designed to keep one power from dominating the region especially when the U.S. now tries to “come back to Asia” by reinforcing its forward deployments. South Korea finds itself in increasing rivalry between these “two dreams sharing the same bed”: China’s quest for a unipolar Asia via building a Sino-centric and exclusive East Asian Community and America’s quest for a multipolar Asia via fostering a Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) toward a Pacific Community. South Korea has little choice but strengthening its security alliance with U.S. and expanding its thrusts for economic globalization via free trade agreements while attempting by all means to build strong bridges with China and other powers by deepening common economic and strategic interests.
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