국내 정체성 정치(identity politics)와 외교전략 딜레마 : 인도 모디(Modi) 정부의 힌두 민족주의 국내정책과 중국의 공세적 외교정책의 충돌
A Dilemma between Domestic Identity Policies and Diplomatic Strategy: The Case of Modi’s Hindu Nationalist Domestic Policy and Its Collision with China’s Aggressive Foreign Policy
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미중 간의 경쟁이 악화일로인 가운데 인도-중국 국경에서 지난 6월 벌어진 국경 유혈사태는 전 세계의 주목을 받았다. 중국의 강압적 공세와 양국군 간의 충돌로 전례 없이 많은 사상자까지 발생하자 이런 충돌의 원인과향후 대책, 인도 정부의 대응에 관심이 집중되었다. 그런데 이번 충돌의 직접적 원인 중의 하나로 2019년 8월 인도 정부의 연방헌법 수정을 통한 카슈미르 자치권 박탈과 잠무⋅카슈미르와 라닥으로의 영토 양분, 그리고 이두 영토의 연방 직할령으로의 전환이 크게 주목받게 되었다. 이미 이 정책발효 시부터 많은 논란을 일으킨 바 있는데 특히 중국 정부는 중국의 전략적 이해와 중국의 신장 문제에 대한 주의를 돌리기 위하여 적극 개입을 선택하면서 카시미르 문제를 더욱 복잡하게 만들었다. 또한 인도의 카슈미르지위변경 정책은 인도와 파키스탄과의 관계를 더욱 악화시킴과 함께 중국과 파키스탄과의 전략적 협력을 더욱 공고하게 만들었다. 또한 이 정책과유사한 시기와 목적에 따라 진행된 국가시민명부(NRC) 정책은 국내 민주주의의 약화와 주변국, 특히 방글라데시와의 관계를 극도로 악화시켰다. 이렇게 BJP 강경 민족주의자로서 모디 총리의 성향이 강하게 드러난 일련의 국내정책이 중국을 불필요하게 도발하고 주변국과의 관계를 악화시킴으로서 중국의 강압적 공세에 대한 적절한 대응도 힘들게 하였다. 즉 최근 1 년의 인도 국내외 정책 분석 사례는 극우 포퓰리즘적 국내정책의 시행이 지지자들의 환호를 받았을지 모르지만 의도하지 않게 인도의 외교안보환경을상당히 악화시켰다고 할 수 있다. 특정 지도자의 성향이나 정권 지지층의이데올로기에 크게 영향을 받은 국내정책이 의도하지 않게(혹은 개의치 않고) 그 국가의 외교정책에 악영향을 끼쳐 외교안보의 전반적인 상황을 악화시키는 것은 비단 인도 모디 정부에게만 일어난 건 아니기에 학문적 주의를기울일 필요가 있다.
Abstract
The bloody clash between Indian and Chinese soldiers along the frontier in June, 2020, amid the Covid-19 pandemic and the worsening relationships between the US and China, shocked the world. The confrontation resulted in many casualties and caused an anti-China uproar in India. Yet one of the main reasons of the incident was the Indian government’s revocation of the Constitution 370, which granted Kashmir a special autonomous status, and the bifurcation of Kashmir by Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh in August 2019. The decision, long demanded by Hindu nationalists, caused an immediate resistance by local population and Modi responded with harsh crackdown. The Modi government also went ahead with the controversial National Registration of Citizenship(NRC), which was intended to strip off citizenship from people in eastern states, mostly muslims, in the name of expelling illegal immigrants from Bangladesh. These brazenly Hindu nationalist and anti-Muslim domestic policies have been widely applauded by Modi supporters but ended up critically damaging India’s foreign and security relations with its neighbors. It unnecessarily allowed Chinese intervention and made the relationships between Pakistan and China a lot closer. India’s policy also hurt its longstanding amicable relationships with Bangladesh(and Nepal). Thus the collateral damage on India’s diplomatic strategy of Modi’s populist domestic policy has been enormous. Given the spread of right wing populism all around the world, scholars need to pay closer attention to the damning effect of a state’s domestic policy on foreign policy and security strategy.
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