Economic Uncertainty, Dynamic Adjustment of Leverage and Bank Ri나-Taking in China
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This paper studies the impact of economic uncertainty on the risk-taking of Chinese commercial banks, and the role of dynamic leverage adjustment in the impact mechanism. On this basis, combined with the characteristics of the scale and listing of Chinese commercial banks, this paper discusses the moderating effect of economic uncertainty on bank risk-taking. The main empirical results of this paper are as follows. First, economic uncertainty will lead to the increase of bank income volatility and risk. Second, due to the influence of external uncertainty, the leverage ratio of banks will be too high(too low), and banks will quickly reduce(increase) the leverage level according to their leverage adjustment function, which alleviates the risk to a certain extent. Third, further research shows that the leverage adjustment mechanism of listed banks and large banks is more obvious. Therefore, Chinese commercial banks should build a sound macroeconomic early warning system to predict and early warn the economic situation in advance, so as to reduce the impact of adverse shocks.
Abstract
This paper studies the impact of economic uncertainty on the risk-taking of Chinese commercial banks, and the role of dynamic leverage adjustment in the impact mechanism. On this basis, combined with the characteristics of the scale and listing of Chinese commercial banks, this paper discusses the moderating effect of economic uncertainty on bank risk-taking. The main empirical results of this paper are as follows. First, economic uncertainty will lead to the increase of bank income volatility and risk. Second, due to the influence of external uncertainty, the leverage ratio of banks will be too high(too low), and banks will quickly reduce(increase) the leverage level according to their leverage adjustment function, which alleviates the risk to a certain extent. Third, further research shows that the leverage adjustment mechanism of listed banks and large banks is more obvious. Therefore, Chinese commercial banks should build a sound macroeconomic early warning system to predict and early warn the economic situation in advance, so as to reduce the impact of adverse shocks.
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