기업별 거시경제 민감도를 반영한 고성장기업 예측
Forecasting High-Growth Firms with Firm-Specific Macroeconomic Sensitivity
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초록
본 연구는 기업별 거시변수 민감도를 반영한 모형을 통해 고성장기업의 예측 가능성을 탐색하였다. 고성장 기업은 상대적 성장인 CAGR과 상대적 성장과 절대적 성장을 결합한 Birch measure를 통해측정하였다. 성장성 측정변수로는 매출액을, 고성장기업 예측모형의 설명변수로는 기업의 내부요인인기술평가변수와 재무비율, 그리고 기업의 외부요인인 거시경제변수를 적용하였다. 특히 기업별 거시경제민감도를 반영할 수 있는 해저드모형을 도입하여 분석에 활용하였다. 분석 결과, 모든 분석에서 유의한기술평가변수는 기술성인 것으로 나타났다. 기술성의 추정계수는 통계적으로 유의한 양(+)으로 나타나기업의 기술혁신에 대한 노력과 축적된 역량이 기업의 고성장 가능성을 향상시키는 것으로 분석되었다. 기술성은 거시경제변수와의 교호항에서도 통계적으로 유의한 결과를 보였다. 이를 통해 기술성이 기업별거시경제 민감도가 반영되는 매개체 역할을 수행하는 것이 아닐까 추측된다. 또한 본 연구에서는 기업별 순고용창출효과를 고성장기업과 비고성장기업을 대상으로 비교분석하였다. 분석 결과, 상대적 성장인 CAGR 기준 고성장기업은 3년동안 기업별 평균 11.74명을 순고용한 반면, 혼합 성장인 Birch measure 기준의 고성장기업은 동일 기간에 기업별 평균 15.03명을 순고용한것으로 나타났다. 즉 Birch measure가 고용창출효과를 분석하기에 더 우월한 방법론인 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과를 Birch measure를 적용한 해저드모형의 상대적으로 높은 ROC 수치와 연계할 경우, 본 연구에서 도입한 기업별 거시경제 민감도를 반영한 고성장예측모형이 고용창출효과와 연계된고성장기업을 분석할 때 더욱 효과적일 것으로 추측된다.
Abstract
This study explores the predictability of high-growth firms through a model that incorporates the sensitivity of firm-specific macro variables. High-growth firms were measured by CAGR, which is relative growth, and Birch measure, which combines relative and absolute growth. We used sales as a measure of growth, technology evaluation variables and financial ratios, which are internal factors, and macroeconomic variables, which are external factors, as explanatory variables for the high-growth company prediction model. In particular, a hazard model that can reflect the macroeconomic sensitivity of each company was introduced and utilized in the analysis. The results show that the most significant technology evaluation variable in all analyses is technology. The estimated coefficient of technological quality is statistically significant and positive, indicating that a firm’s efforts in technological innovation and accumulated capabilities improve the likelihood of high growth. The interaction term of technology with macroeconomic variables is also statistically significant. This suggests that technology plays a role as a mediator of firm-specific macroeconomic sensitivity. This study also analyzes the net job creation effect of firms by comparing high-growth and non-high-growth firms. The results show that high-growth firms based on relative growth (CAGR) employed an average of 11.74 people per firm over the three-year period, while high-growth firms based on mixed growth (Birch measure) employed an average of 15.03 people per firm over the same period, indicating that Birch measure is a superior methodology for analyzing job creation effects. These results, coupled with the relatively high ROC value of the Hazard model using the Birch measure, suggest that the high-growth forecasting model with firm-specific macroeconomic sensitivity introduced in this study may be more effective in analyzing high-growth firms associated with job creation effects.
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