글로벌 금융위기 이후 투자의 추세변화와 원인분석
Trend and Cause Analysis of Investment in South Korea after the Global Financial Crisis
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글로벌 금융위기 이후 한국 경제는 기업의 투자 감소와 주력산업의 붕괴, 대외경쟁력의 하락, 소득불평등의 심화 등 경제적 어려움을 경험하였다. 특히 한국 경제에서 대외경제의 불확실성 증가와 산업구조의 변화로 재정지출이 정부 부채의 증가로 이어져 고비용과 저효율의 경제 상태가 고착화될 것이라는 우려를 낳고 있다. 또한, 경직된 노동시장, 생산적 경제활동의 감소, 기업의 저조한 투자로 한국 경제의 장기침체를 우려하는 목소리가 산업현장에서 높아지고 있다. 이에 본 연구는 글로벌 금융위기로 투자가 감소한 원인을 실증 분석하였다. 분석결과는 글로벌 금융위기로 산출량이 감소하여 투자가 감소하였으나, 산출량의 감소에 비해 투자가 큰 폭으로 감소하지 않은 것으로 나타났다. 실제로 투자 감소의 주요 원인으로는 해외수요의 감소와 불확실성의 증대가 중요했음을 파악하였다. 또한, 투자 감소의 원인 분석에 대한 강건성을 검정하기 위해 부호제약을 활용하여 추가로 투자 분석을 실시하였고, 국내 공급부문의 문제가 투자 감소에 영향을 미쳤음을 파악하였다.
Abstract
Since the global financial crisis, the Korean economy has faced economic difficulties such as a decline in corporate investment, collapse of the main industries, weakening of external competitiveness, and deepening of income inequality. In particular, the path of sustainable growth is woefully inadequate, because the heightened uncertainty and structural changes could entail higher costs and inefficient productions. In addition, large fiscal changes may result in an increase in government debt rather than revitalizing the economy. Hence, firms are reluctant to increase investment and the voice of companies worrying about the long-term recession of the Korean economy is rising in the industrial field. This study has analyzed the causes of a decrease in corporate investment caused by the global financial crisis. The empirical results suggest that although the output declined due to the crisis, which led to a decline in the investment, the investment did not appear to have decreased significantly compared to the decrease in output. The results also show that the weakening of overseas demand and the heightened uncertainty were the main factors for the decrease in investment. In addition, we delved into the main causes of investment reduction by using the sign restrictions test and further identified problems in the domestic supply sector.
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