한국의 가계 및 정부부문 부채와 소득불평등 심화
Household and Government Debt and Income Inequality in Korea
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초록
본 연구는 한국의 가계부채 및 정부부채와 소득불평등 간의 관계를 실증적으로 분석하고자 하였으며, 이를 위해 2003년 1분기부터 2017년 3분기까지 국내 가계 및 정부부채와 소득불평등 자료를 사용하였다. 실증분석에 앞서 이상의 변수들에 대한 단위근 검정 결과 안정적 시계열과 불안정적 시계열이 혼재되어 있는 것으로 나타났으며, 이를 고려하여 ARDL 한계검정법을 사용한 소득불평등과 가계 및 정부부채 간의 장․단기 영향을 분석하였다. 또한 변수의 단위근 및 공적분 여부에 개의치 않고 인과관계를 검정할 수 있는 Toda-Yamamoto 인과관계 검정법을 사용하여 ARDL 모형의 단일방정식 체계를 설정하여 분석하였다. 실증분석 결과, 가계부채 및 정부부채는 소득불평등과 공적분 관계가 성립하는 것으로 제시되었으며, 이를 바탕으로 장․단기 모형을 추정한 결과 장기적 관계에서만 소득불평등과 가계 및 정부부채 간에 통계적으로 유의한 음(-)의 관계가 성립될 뿐 단기적으로는 이러한 관계가 성립되지 않는 것으로 나타났다. 즉 소득불평등 완화는 장기적으로 가계부채 및 정부부채 증가에 기여하는 반면, 경기변동 증대는 장기적으로 가계부채 및 정부부채 감소에 기여하는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 분석 결과를 통해 본 연구에서는 소득불평등과 과도한 부채문제 해결을 위해 장기적이고 일관된 정부정책 시행의 필요성을 제시하였다.
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the relationship between household and government debts and income inequality. For this purpose, we use data on domestic household and government debts and deciles distribution ratio from the first quarter 2003 to the third quarter 2017. Before doing the empirical analysis, it is performed the unit root tests for the above variables, and showed that both stable and unstable variables were mixed. In addition, this study uses the Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, which can estimate the long run relationship among variables, regardless of the stability. That is, the ARDL bounds testing approach has an advantage that it can be used when I (0) and I (1) variables are mixed. Moreover, we set up a single equation through Toda and Yamamoto Granger causality test, because the ARDL model consists of a single equation system. After that, we use ARDL bounds test approach to examine the existence of cointegration and to find out the short-run and long-run relationship between household and government debts and income inequality. As a result, household and government debts have cointegration with income inequality. In addition, the results of long-run and short-run model estimates show that these variables have a negative and statistically significant relationship in the long-run, but not exist in the-short run. In other words, the reducing of income inequality contributes to increase household and government debts in the long run. Indeed, the increasing of business cycle contributes to decrease household and government debts in the long run. From the above results, we suggest some of implications as follows. First, various government redistribution policies for households and businesses should be implemented. Second, enforce a regulating credit supply policy of financial institutions and strengthening supervision of non-financial institution loans for reducing the excessive debt problem directly. Lastly, it is necessary to enforce a long-run and consistent government policy to improve the income inequality and to solve excessive debt problems.
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