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주택투자 결정지표에 관한 연구

A Study on the Decision Criterion of House Investment Using the Excess Return on Various Types of House Investment

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주제분류경제학

초록

This study shows the calculation of excess return on various house investment using the concept of capitalization rate. In declining of house price, the conversion rate of Chonsei and monthly rent and the total investment return are some limitation, for the conversion rate overestimates the return on house investment. So we need the practical method to calculate return on house investment and the decision criterion of house investment. Actual analysis of Kook-min bank house price Index through the developed calculation method supplies the decision criterion of house investment in particular region. Also we can compare the excess return on house investment between regions of Korea. Firstly, without considering leverage effect of deposit, returns on full-monthly rent is higher than those of Chonsei and monthly rent with variable deposit. In case of owner-housing type, Seoul and Incheon are only lucrative area, but in full-monthly rent type, except for Daegu, all regions are positive criteria on house investment. Secondly, considering leverage effect of deposit, returns on monthly rent is higher than those of Chonsei and monthly rent with variable deposit too.

Abstract

This study shows the calculation of excess return on various house investment using the concept of capitalization rate. In declining of house price, the conversion rate of Chonsei and monthly rent and the total investment return are some limitation, for the conversion rate overestimates the return on house investment. So we need the practical method to calculate return on house investment and the decision criterion of house investment. Actual analysis of Kook-min bank house price Index through the developed calculation method supplies the decision criterion of house investment in particular region. Also we can compare the excess return on house investment between regions of Korea. Firstly, without considering leverage effect of deposit, returns on full-monthly rent is higher than those of Chonsei and monthly rent with variable deposit. In case of owner-housing type, Seoul and Incheon are only lucrative area, but in full-monthly rent type, except for Daegu, all regions are positive criteria on house investment. Secondly, considering leverage effect of deposit, returns on monthly rent is higher than those of Chonsei and monthly rent with variable deposit too.

참고문헌 (7)

  1. 박병식, "전,월세제도의 이론적 고찰 -모의실험을 통한 투자수익률 계산을 중심으로-", 부동산학연구, 8(1), pp.57~69 (2002), 한국부동산분석학회
  2. 서후석, "아파트투자지표개발에 관한 연구" (1999), 한국건설산업연구원
  3. 이용만, "구조적변화인가 가격상승의 징조인가?-전세", 주택가격 비율의 상승에 대한 해석, 2000, pp.6(1), 9~22
  4. 이창무, "반복매매모형을 활용한 아파트 매매가격지수", 부동산학연구, 8(2), pp.4~19 (2002)
  5. "이창무ㆍ이재우, 「한국부동산 임대시장의 새로운 해석」, 부동산114, 2007", ~
  6. 이창무, "보증부월세시장의 구조적 해석", 국토계획, 37(6), pp.87~97 (2002), 대한국토·도시계획학회
  7. 조주현, "전세가격과 매매가격 및 월세가격간의 관계에 관한 연구", 부동산학연구, 10(2), pp.2~8 (2004)

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