지역별 인구 변동 및 경제적 요인 분석: 패널자룔를 이용한 회귀분석 및 요인분석
Analysis of Regional Population Change and its Economic Determinants
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Abstract
The paper discusses regional population change and analyzes its economic determinants utilizing Korean regional data. Major findings are summarized as follows: First, decline of birth rates is common across all regions. However, there exist some differences in regional birth rates. Second, it is found that an increase in education cost and education quality play major negative roles in birth rates. Women's participation rate in economic activity also turns out to lower birth rates. However, it is shown that income does not play any significant role in determining birth rates. Third, population concentration around metropolitan Seoul area is quite notable in Korea. However, inter-regional migration is getting smaller. Fourth, regression analysis on the causes of migration reveals that regional income and education opportunity strongly induces migration, but that other variables, in general, do not have effects on migration as expected. For example, higher local tax and living cost lead to migration rather than emigration. In conclusion, main results on migration are consistent with Kim and Chang(1997). Finally, factor analysis shows that income and education factors are important for determining total regional population change. 攀* This research is supported by 2005 Kyungsung University Research Grant.
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