글로벌 금융위기와 조기 경보
Global Financial Crisis and Early Warning
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초록
2008~2009년의 글로벌 금융위기는 미국을 비롯한 선진국에서 부동산 시장과 부동산 금융의 과열로 발생했다는 점에서 이전의 위기와 다르다. 개도국들은 이번에 대부분 위기를 겪지 않았으나 우리나라는 1997년에 이어 이번에도 자본의 급격한 유출에 따른 통화위기를 겪게 되었다. 아시아 금융위기 이후 많은 조기경보 모형들이 개발되었으나 이번 위기 방지에는 기여하지 못했다. 이는 조기경보 모형의 위기예측력이 양호하지 않기 때문이기도 하지만 ‘이번은 다르다’ 신드롬에 빠져있었기 때문이기도 하다. 우리나라의 2008년 위기는 통화위기였다는 점에서 1997년의 위기와 크게 다르지 않았고, 선행지표의 예측력도 높은 것으로 나타났다. 과거에 통화위기를 겪었던 다른 나라들은 이번에 대부분 위기를 겪지 않았지만 과거 통화위기의 선행지표들은 대부분 유효했던 것으로 나타났다.
Abstract
The global financial crises during 2008~2009 could be different from the previous ones, as they are associated with the boom in the housing market and the weaknesses of the housing finance. Therefore the advanced countries experienced the crisis this time, while most emerging countries did not. However, Korea experienced the currency crises again because of the sudden stop of the capital flows. The early warning model that had been developed after the Asian financial crises in 1997 was not utilized this time, because the performance of the model was not good and the this-time-is-different syndrome prevailed. It is notable that Korea suffered from the currency crisis again after the 1997 crisis. The early warning model developed for the 1997 crisis worked well to predict the 2008 crisis. Many other currency-crisis countries in the past did not suffer from the same currency crisis this time, but the indicators chosen for the currency crises in the past were found to be effective to explain this phenomenon.
참고문헌 (27)
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