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평가절하의 경기위축적 효과와 노동시장의 역할

Contractionary Devaluation and the Role of the Labor Market

원용걸
한국국제경제학회 (The Korea International Economic Association)|2007.08|국제경제연구 (KUKJE KYUNGJE YONGU)|제13권 제2호|pp. 21-54|DOI 10.17298/kky.2007.13.2.002

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참고문헌

키워드

투자Investment평가절하실질생산임금결정방식저개발국DevaluationReal OutputWage Setting SchemeLess Developed Country
주제분류경제학

초록

본 논문은 오랫동안 논란의 대상이었던 평가절하의 투자 및 경기위축적 효과가 노동시장의 다양한 임금결정방식에 관계없이 일반적으로 나타날 수 있는 것인지를 고찰한다. 이를 위해 본 논문은 교역재 및 비교역재 두 가지 재화를 생산하는 소규모 개방 저개발국 경제에서 평가절하 이후 부문별 투자, 총투자, 국제수지 및 실질생산 등 다양한 거시경제변수들이 노동시장의 서로 다른 임금 결정 방식에 따라 어떻게 변화하는지를 일반균형 동태적 최적화 모형을 이용하여 비교ㆍ분석한다. 분석 결과, 임금결정방식에 관계없이 대부분의 저개발국 경제가 평가절하 이후 국제수지는 즉각 개선되더라도 중․단기적으로 투자위축 및 이에 따른 경기침체를 경험할 가능성이 큰 것으로 나타났다. 특히 평가절하에 의해 혜택을 보는 교역재 부문의 임금이 상대적으로 높은 임금결정방식에서조차 평가절하 직후 투자위축 및 단기적인 실질생산 감소는 일반적인 것으로 나타났다. 또한 임금결정방식과 관계없이 상대적으로 수입자본재에 대한 의존도가 높고 노동집약적인 제품을 수출하는 발전단계가 낮은 저개발국일수록 평가절하의 투자 위축 및 실질생산 감소 효과가 더 큰 것으로 나타났다.

Abstract

This paper intends to examine the robustness of much debated contractionary effects of devaluation under the assumptions of various wage setting schemes. To do this, I make use of a perfect foresight dynamic optimization model with two sectors and two factors of production in the small open developing economy, and analyze the impact and dynamic effects of devaluation on the balance of payments, sectoral as well as aggregate investment, and real output under various wage setting schemes. Simulation results show that regardless of different wage setting schemes, aggregate investment as well as investment in the nontradables sector falls on impact in almost all cases considered while devaluation improves the balance of payments in all cases considered. Investment in the tradables sector also falls in most plausible cases. Dynamics of real output reveals that it slumps in the short to medium run, mainly due to the fall in investment.

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