APEC의 보고르 목표 달성과 역내 무역창출여부에 대한 실증분석
APEC’s Bogor Goals and Trade Creation Effect within APEC
0
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
본 연구는 1994년 보고르 선언(Bogor Declarations)에 따른 2010년 보고르 목표(Bogor Goals)달성 여부 평가하는 데 중요한 지표인 역내 경제통합의 강화가 실제 이루어졌는지를 분석하는것이다. 이를 위해 중력모형(Gravity model)의 추정을 이용하여 2010년 평가에 참여한 5개선진국(Bogor-5)과 자발적으로 참여한 8개 개도국(Bogor-8)이 1995년 이후 2010년까지 APEC회원국에 비하여 여타 APEC 회원국으로부터 수입을 추가로 증대시켰는지를 분석하였다. 그결과, 5개 선진 회원국들과 자발적으로 참여한 8개 개도국 회원국들 뿐만 평가에 참여하지 않은나머지 회원국들의 경우에도 제조업 무역에서 역내 무역창출이 이루어졌음을 확인하였다. 반면에 비제조업 무역에서는 보고르 목표 연도인 2010년까지 역내 무역창출이 이루어지지 않았음을 확인하였다.
Abstract
This study examines the trade creation effect within APEC from 1995 to 2010, in order toevaluate the APEC’s Bogor Goals in 2010 for regional economic integration. For this purpose,we utilize several gravity models for the 5 developed APEC member countries who committedto the Goals by 2010 and the 8 developing APEC member countries who “voluntarily”participated in the evaluation for the achievment of the Goals by the same year. We foundthat not only the Bogor-5 developed countries and Bogor-8 countries but also the restdeveloping member countries showed trade creation effects within the APEC in manufacturedgoods imports. However, none of the three groups of APEC members showed any trade creationeffects in non-manufactured goods imports.
참고문헌 (25)
- APEC 무역원활화의 정책과제 및 파급효과, "김상겸", 대외경제정책 연구원, ~, pp.연구보고서, 06-05 (2006)
- 보고르 목표 이행평가와 APEC의 경제통합과제, "김상겸", 대외경제정책연구원, ~, pp.연구보고서, 10-05 (2010)
- Anderson, J. E., "Gravity with Gravitas : A Solution to the Border Puzzle", American Economic Review, 93(1), pp.170~192 (2003)
- APEC, "A Mid-Term Stock of Progress towards the Bogor Goals: Busan Roadmap to the Bogor Goals", ~ (2005)
- APEC Policy Support Unit, "Progressing towards the APEC Bogor Goals:Perspective of the APEC Policy Support Unit", ~ (2010)
- APEC’s Achievements in Trade Facilitation 2007～2010-Final Assessment of the Second Trade Facilitation Action Plan (TFAP II), "APEC Policy Support Unit", APEC, ~, pp.APEC#211-SE-01.8 (2012)
- Baier, S. L., "Do Free Trade Agreements Acutally Increase Members’ International Trade", Journal of International Economics, 71, pp.72~95 (2007)
- Baier, S. L., "Economic Integration Agreements and the Margins of International Trade", Journal of International Economics, 93, pp.339~350 (2014)
- Is Regionalism Simply a Diversion? Evidence from the Evolution of the EC and EFTA, "Bayoumi, T.", NBER, ~, pp.Working Paper, 5238 (1995)
- Carrère, C., "Revisiting the Effects of Regional Trade Agreements on Trade Flows with Proper Specification of the Gravity Model", European Economic Review, 50, pp.223~247 (2006)
- Creation and Diversion Revisitied: Accounting for Model Uncertainty and Natural Trading Partner Effects, "Eicher, T. S.", International Monetary Fund, ~, pp.WP 08 (2008), 66, IMF Working Paper
- Feenstra, R. C., "Border Effects and the Gravity Equation : Consistent Methods for Estimation", Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 29, pp.491~506 (2002)
- Frankel, J., "Regional Trading Blocs in the World Trading System" (1997), Institute for International Economics
- Trading Blocs and Currency Blocs, "Frankel, J.", NBER, ~, pp.Working Paper, 4335 (1993)
- Open Regionalism in a World of Continental Trading Blocs, "Frankel, J.", NBER, ~, pp.Working Paper, 5272 (1995)
- ASEAN in a Regional Perspective, "Frankel, J.", Pacific Basin, ~, pp.Working Paper, PB96-02 (1996)
- Open Regionalism in a World of Continental Trade Blocks, "Frankel, J.", IMF, ~, pp.Working Paper, 10 (1998)
- Gosh, S., "Are Preferential Trade Agreements Trade Creating? An Application of Extreme Bounds Analysis", Journal of International Economics, 63, pp.369~395 (2004)
- Hur, J., "Effects of Hub-and-Spoke Free Trade Agreements on Trade : A Panel Data Analysis", The World Economy, 38(8), pp.1105~1113 (2010)
- Trade Creation in the APEC Region: Measurement of the Magnitude of and Changes in Intra-regional Trade since APEC’s Inception, "Lee, H. -H.", APEC Policy Support Unit, ~, pp.APEC #209-SE-01.2 (2009)
- Lee, H. -H., "Are Exports of China, Japan, and Korea Diverted in the Major Regional Trading Blocs?", The World Economy, 31(7), pp.841~860 (2008)
- OECD, "Progress towards Trade and Investment Liberalisation by Industrialized APEC Economies", ~ (2010)
- Trade in Services in the APEC Region: Patterns, Determinants, and Policy Implications, "Shepherd, Ben.", APEC Policy Support Unit, ~, pp.APEC#210-SE-01.3 (2010)
- Trade Effects of the Europe Agreements, "Spies, J.", Universität Hohenheim, ~, pp.Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre Working paper, 274 (2006), 2006
- Submarine, A., "The WTO Promotes Trade, Strongly but Unevenly", Journal of International Economics, 72, pp.151~175 (2007)