코로나19 전후 서울 상권 매출의 공간적 변화
The COVID-19 Pandemic Impact on the Seoul Retail Market: A Spatial Perspective
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초록
코로나19와 같은 범지역적 외부 요인의 영향이 상권에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지는 아직 알려진 바가 거의 없다. 본 연구는 서울 상권을 대상으로 코로나19에 따른 상권 변화를 파악하기 위해 2015년부터 2020년까지의 매출액 데이터를 활용해 상권 변화의 공간적 특성을 분석하는 공간분석 방법 그리고 코로나19의 상권별 그리고 업종별 피해 규모와 차이를 통계적으로 추정하기 위해 패널 분석을 통해 매출액 변화에 미치는 영향을 실증적으로 파악하였다. 공간분석 결과에 따르면 서울 전체 지역 상권 공간적 변화를 보면 코로나19 이후 관광상권, 대학 상권, 발달상권 등의 매출액이 감소하는 추세를 보이는 것을 확인하였고 서울 상권 변화의 공간적 차이를 살펴보면 인구 유출이 큰 지역 상권에서 매출액 감소 폭이 특히 큰 경향이 있었다. 또한, 패널 분석의 결과를 보면 코로나19 직전 연도(18~19년)보다 확산 이후(19~20년)의 매출액 감소 효과가 더 큰 것으로 추정됐다. 본 연구 결과는 상권별로 회복 속도 어떠한 차이가 있을 것인지 등에 대해 논의할 때 실증근거로써 활용 가능할 것이다.
Abstract
Little is known about how the COVID-19 have affected the retail market in Seoul. This study conducted a spatial analysis method to analyze the spatial characteristics of changes in commercial districts using sales data from 2015 to 2020, and a panel analysis to statistically estimate the degree of damage and difference between commercial districts. According to the spatial analysis results, sales of tourism, university districts, and developmental commercial districts have tended to decline since COVID-19. In addition, looking at the spatial differences in sales changes in commercial districts in Seoul, the decline in sales tended to be particularly large in commercial districts with large population outflows. As a result of the panel analysis, it is estimated that sales decline after the spread is greater than the year before COVID-19, and it can be seen that people have reduced non-essential consumption. The study can be used as an empirical evidence when discussing whether there will be a difference in recovery speed in commercial districts.
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