한국의 남성 출산력: 남성 합계출산율과 평균 출산연령의 지역별 차이
Male Fertility in South Korea: Regional Differentials in Total Fertility Rate and Mean Age at Fatherhood
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출산에 대한 사회적 우려와 관심이 크게 확대되었지만, 남성의 출산력 수준과 그 변화에 관해서는 많이 알려지지 않았다. 이 연구는 한국 남성의 출산력 수준을 탐색하기 위한 것이다. 1998～2019년 출생신고 자료와 주민등록연앙인구를 활용하여 남성의 합계출산율과 평균 출산연령을 산출하고 이를 여성과 비교하였다. 전국을 대도시, 중소도시, 농촌 지역으로 구분하여 합계출산율과 평균 출산연령의 차이를 비교하고, 남성의 합계출산율 변화를 분해분석하였다. 남성의 합계출산율은 여성보다 조금 낮은 수준이었으며 남성의 평균 출산연령은 여성보다 2.7～3.0세 높은 수준에서 조금씩 변화하는 모습을 보였다. 여성의 합계출산율과 평균 출산연령이 각각 도시화와 부적 상관, 정적 상관을 보이는 것에 비해, 남성의 합계출산율과 평균 출산연령은 관찰 기간 내 일관되지 않는 형태를 보였다. 특히 2010년대 중반 이후 남성의 합계출산율은 중소도시에서 가장 높고, 농촌과 대도시 순이었으며, 남성의 평균 출산연령은 대도시에서 가장 높고, 농촌, 중소도시 순이었다. 지역 간 인구이동과 분포에도 불구하고 1998～2019년 사이 발생한 남성의 합계출산율 변화는 대부분 출산율 효과로 설명되는 것으로 확인되었다. 남성 출산력의 수준과 시기를 분석하고 그 변화를 파악하는 것은 물론 출산율 변동의 원인과 결과를 좀 더 깊이 있고 다양한 측면에서 이해할 기회를 제공한다.
Abstract
Despite growing concerns on low fertility, little is known about male fertility in South Korea. This study explores the fertility levels of men in South Korea using birth registration data between 1998 and 2019. We calculate the total fertility rate (TFR) of male and mean age at fatherhood (MAF), comparing them with female TFR and mean age at childbearing (MAC). We also divide the country into metropolitan, mid-sized cities and rural area to compare differences in TFR and MAF, and conduct a decomposition analysis of changes in TFR. The findings show that men's TFR is slightly lower than women's, while men's MAF is 2.7-3.0 years higher than women’s MAC, with minor variations. Unlike women, whose TFR and MAC correlate with urbanization, men's TFR and mean age at fatherhood showed inconsistent patterns. Since the mid-2010s, the highest TFR for men was in mid-sized cities, followed by rural areas and metropolitan areas. The mean age at fatherhood was highest in metropolitan areas, followed by rural and mid-sized cities. Despite regional population movements, changes in male TFR from 1998 to 2019 were mainly due to fertility rate effects. Understanding the quantum and tempo of male fertility offers distinct insights into the causes and consequences of fertility change in a society.
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