A Conceptual Framework for Supply Chain Risk Management Based on Epidemic Model
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초록
The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the vulnerability of global supply chains and the importance of supply chain risk management. This study presents a conceptual framework that applies epidemic models to supply chain risk analysis, mapping the states of Susceptible, Infected, and Recovered/Removed to supply chain nodes. This approach enables a dynamic understanding of risk transmission and recovery over time. By incorporating the basic reproduction number, the framework quantitatively evaluates systemic vulnerability and classifies risk management strategies into prevention, containment, and recovery. The proposed model is applied to the analysis of supply chain disruptions and responses observed during the COVID-19 pandemic, offering theoretical insights and practical implications for developing strategies to address future global supply chain risk.
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the vulnerability of global supply chains and the importance of supply chain risk management. This study presents a conceptual framework that applies epidemic models to supply chain risk analysis, mapping the states of Susceptible, Infected, and Recovered/Removed to supply chain nodes. This approach enables a dynamic understanding of risk transmission and recovery over time. By incorporating the basic reproduction number, the framework quantitatively evaluates systemic vulnerability and classifies risk management strategies into prevention, containment, and recovery. The proposed model is applied to the analysis of supply chain disruptions and responses observed during the COVID-19 pandemic, offering theoretical insights and practical implications for developing strategies to address future global supply chain risk.