기본소득의 소득 분배를 통한 소비효과 예측
Forecasting the impacts of Basic income on Consumption through Income Distribution
0
조회
0
다운로드
5
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
본 연구는 기본소득 도입에 따른 장기적인 소득 증가가 경제주체들의 소득 분배를 개선시키고소비를 견인하는지 Friedman의 항상소득가설을 통해 구체적인 기본소득 모형들을 중심으로 예측하고자 하는 목적을 가지고 있다. 이에 2021, 2023, 2028년 3개 년도를 기준으로 총 6개의 기본소득모형을 상정하여 각각의 소득재분배효과와 소비효과를 살펴보았다. 본 연구를 위해서 2019년 1분기「가계동향조사」자료를 활용하였고, 해당 자료를 활용해 5분위 배율을 도출하여 소득불평등도의변화를 예측한 후 이를 기초로 Friedman(1957)의 항상소득가설 소비함수를 통해 각각 2021, 2023, 2028년도에 기본소득 제공으로 인한 소득 분배 충격 발생 시 소비성향이 어떻게 변하는지를 추정하였다. 분석 결과 모든 기본소득 모형에서 현행 제도와 비교할 때 모두 소득재분배효과가 강력하게나타났으며, 특히 기본소득 수급액이 증가할수록 뚜렷이 사회 전체의 분배구조가 개선되었다. 이처럼본 연구에서는 기본소득 제공으로 인해 보다 공평한 분배가 이루어질 때 평균소비성향에 긍정적인효과가 나타나는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 다만, 대부분의 모형 간에는 소비진작효과가 유사한 결과로나타나 향후 내수 진작 측면에서 어떤 모형이 더 바람직할지에 대해서 추가적인 논의가 필요할것으로 판단된다.
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to forecast whether permanent income increase generated by Universal Basic Income can ameliorate income inequality and eventually contribute to the national economic growth, based on the “permanent income hypothesis.” For this purpose, this study designed 6 different Basic Income models; two different models were set up for 2021, 2023, and 2028, respectively to estimate and compare the effects on income redistribution and consumption. The Korean Household Income and Expenditure Survey data for the first quarter of 2019 were used to estimate the income quintile ratio. With these results along with previously estimated income quintile ratio information, we forecasted the changes in the average propensity to consumption when the change in income distribution due to the provision of Basic Income occurs in 2021, 2023, and 2028, respectively. The results of the study suggest that there would be a strong income redistributive effect when Basic income is introduced, compared to the current situation. And when the society reduces income inequality, it will be more likely to become economically prosperous thanks to the increase in consumption. However, the effect of each different Basic income model on consumption is very similar to one anther. Thus, further studies on which model will be the best fit for the country are expected for a future discussion.
참고문헌 (47)
- 2019~2050년 NABO 장기 재정전망, "국회예산정책처", 국회예산정책처, ~ (2018)
- 우리나라 빈곤 및 불평등 관련 지표변화추이: 주요 OECD 국가들과의 비교, "강신욱", 보건사회연구원, ~ (2006)
- 김유선, "한국의 노동 2016" (2016), 한국노동사회연구소
- 김철식, "단절과 연속성, 신자유주의와 분절: 고용체제의 한국적 특성에 대한 치밀한 모색 정이환, 『한국 고용체제론』(후마니타스, 2013)", 경제와 사회, (101), pp.258~266 (2014), 비판사회학회[DOI]
- 자활사업 심층 평가 연구, "김호원", 한국고용정보원, ~ (2016)
- 노대명, "자활사업 10년의 평가 및 전망", 보건복지포럼, 167, pp.14~27 (2010)
- 노대명, "한국 복지제도의 현황과 쟁점", 보건복지포럼, 222, pp.6~21 (2015)
- 민인식, "시계열 데이터 분석" (2016), 지필미디어
- 소득수준별 세부담 평가와 발전방향, "안종석", 한국조세재정연구원, ~ (2016)
- 근로소득세 공제제도 현황과 정책적 시사점, "오종현", 한국조세재정연구원, ~ (2018)
- 이승주, "모의실험(Simulation)을 통한 기본소득 도입의 효과분석 - 소득재분배와 노동공급 효과를 중심으로 -", 박사, pp.2019
- 이승주, "청년기본소득 도입의 효과 분석: 소득재분배 및 빈곤완화를 중심으로", 정부학연구, 25(1), pp.89~131 (2019), 정부학연구소[DOI]
- 최태훈, "기본소득제가 소득불평등 해소에 미치는 효과 분석 - 최저소득보장제와 비교를 중심으로 -", 재정정책논집, 19(4), pp.95~120 (2017), 한국재정정책학회[DOI]
- LAB2050, "솔루션 2050-04 <국민기본소득제: 2021년부터 재정적으로 실현 가능한 모델제안>", ~ (2018)
- Ackerman, B., "Redesigning Distribution: Basic Income and Stakeholder Grants as Alternative Cornerstones for a more Egalitarian Capitalism" (2006), Verso
- Banerjee, A., "Universal Basic Income in the Developing World", Annual Review of Economics, 11(1), pp.959~983 (2019)
- Blinder, A., "Distribution Effects and the Aggregate Consumption Function", Journal of Political Economy, 83(3), pp.447~475 (1975)
- Brynjolfsson, E., "The second machine age: Work, progress, and prosperity in a time of brilliant technologies" (2014), WW Norton & Co
- Burtless, G., "Confronting poverty:Prescriptions for change" (1994), Harvard University Press
- Della Valle P. A., "Distribution, the aggregate consumption function, and the level of economic development : some cross-country results", Journal of Political Economy, 84(6), pp.1325~1334 (1976)
- Friedman, M., "A Theory of the Consumption Function" (1957), Princeton University Press
- Fuchs, V., "Six papers on the size distribution of wealth and income" (1969), National Bureau of Economic Research
- "Is This Time Different? The Opportunities and Challenges of Artificial Intelligence. Remarks at AI Now: The Social and Economic Implications of Artificial Intelligence Technologies in the Near Term" (2016)[URL]
- Garfinkel, I., "Income tested transfer programs: The case for and against" (1982), Academic Press
- Gamel, C., "The Impact of Basic Income on the Propensity to Work : Theoretical Issues and Microeconometric Results", Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, 35(3), pp.476~497 (2006)
- Ghatak, M., "Universal Basic Income : Some Theoretical Aspects", Annual Review of Economics, 11(1), pp.895~928 (2019)
- Hamburger, M., "Interest Rates and the Demand for Consumer Durable Goods", American Economic Review, 57, pp.1131~1153 (1967)
- Hoynes, H., "Universal Basic Income in the United States and Advanced Countries", Annual Review of Economics, 11(1), pp.929~958 (2019)
- ILO, "Towards a Sustainable Recovery : The Case for Wage-led Policies", International Journal of Labour Research, 3(2), pp.161~257 (2011)
- Keynes, J. M., "The general theory of employment, interest and money" (1973), Macmillan
- Kimball, M. S., "Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large", Econometrica, 58(1), pp.53~73 (1990)
- Korpi, W., "The Paradox of Redistribution and Strategies of Equality:Welfare State Institutions, Inequality, and Poverty in the Western Countries", American Sociological Review, 63(5), pp.661~687 (1998)
- Inequality, Leverage, and Crises, "Kumhof, M.", International Monetary Fund, ~, pp.IMF Working Paper 10 (2010), 268
- Modigliani, F., "The Life Cycle Hypothesis of Saving and the Supply of Capital", Social Research, 33(2), pp.160~217 (1966)
- Modigliani, F., "Post Keynesian Economics" (1954), Rutgers University Press
- Musgrove, P., "Income Distribution and the Aggregate Consumption Function", Journal of Political Economy, 88(3), pp.504~525 (1980)
- The relative income theory of consumption: A synthetic Keynes–Duesenberry–Friedman model, "Palley, T. I.", Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst, ~, pp.Working Papers wp170 (2008)
- Phelps, E., "What’s Wrong with a Free Lunch?" (2001), Beacon Press
- Offe, C., "Basic Income and the Labor Contract", Analyse & Kritik, 31(1), pp.49~79 (2009)
- Raventos, D., "Basic Income: The Material Conditions of Freedom" (2007), Pluto Press
- Standing, G., "Basic Income: And How We Can Make It Happen" (2017), Penguin
- Stiglitz, G., "The Price of Inequality" (2013), Penguin Books
- Stockhammer, E., "Wage-led Growth: An Introduction", International Journal of Labor Research, 3(2), pp.167~188 (2011)
- Van Parijs, P., "Redesigning Distribution: Basic Income and Stakeholder Grants as Cornerstones of a More Egalitarian Capitalism" (2006), Verso
- An Efficiency Argument for the Guaranteed Income, "Widerquist, K.", The Jerome Levy Economics Institute, ~, pp.The Jerome Levy Economics Institute Working Paper, No. 212 (1997)
- Widerquist, K., "The Palgrave International Handbook of Basic Income. Exploring the Basic Income Guarantee" (2019), Palgrave Macmillan
- Yang, A., "The War on Normal People: The Truth About America's Disappearing Jobs and Why Universal Basic Income Is Our Future" (2018), Hachette Books