The Association of Macroeconomic Indicators and Stock Market Returns: Evidence from Japan
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This study examined the association of macroeconomic indicators and stock market performance in Japan. Macroeconomic indicators for analysis included interest rates, money supply, foreign exchange rates including both nominal and real effective exchange rates, inflation rates, and crude oil prices. To investigate the effect of changes in these variables on stock market returns, GARCH model was estimated using monthly time series of the period of 30 years from September 1985 to August 2015. Correlation analysis and Granger causality test were also employed for estimation. As nominal effective exchange rates are almost perfectly positively correlated with real effective exchange rates, nominal effective exchange rates are removed for the analysis. The results showed that Japan’s stock market returns are positively associated with the yen’s devaluation, and that the stock market has a one-way Granger causality to real effective exchange rate and inflation and a two-way causality with oil prices. The changes in foreign exchange rate and money supply are the statistically significant variables that affect the stock market returns, with weak explanatory power of money supply. No volatility spillover effect from macroeconomic indicators to the stock market is found.
Abstract
This study examined the association of macroeconomic indicators and stock market performance in Japan. Macroeconomic indicators for analysis included interest rates, money supply, foreign exchange rates including both nominal and real effective exchange rates, inflation rates, and crude oil prices. To investigate the effect of changes in these variables on stock market returns, GARCH model was estimated using monthly time series of the period of 30 years from September 1985 to August 2015. Correlation analysis and Granger causality test were also employed for estimation. As nominal effective exchange rates are almost perfectly positively correlated with real effective exchange rates, nominal effective exchange rates are removed for the analysis. The results showed that Japan’s stock market returns are positively associated with the yen’s devaluation, and that the stock market has a one-way Granger causality to real effective exchange rate and inflation and a two-way causality with oil prices. The changes in foreign exchange rate and money supply are the statistically significant variables that affect the stock market returns, with weak explanatory power of money supply. No volatility spillover effect from macroeconomic indicators to the stock market is found.
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