본문 바로가기
KERD
논문KCI 등재

Trend-Casting in the Interactive Digital Media Industry: Some Results and Guidelines

0

조회

0

다운로드

0

인용

0

참고문헌

키워드

주제분류기술정책

초록

In this practice article, we present the results of a scenario planning approach that is a hybrid of the three main schools of thought. Our research objective was to study the future of Interactive Digital Media applications such as online music, on-demand television and massively multi-player online role-playing games. Our approach, while essentially qualitative in nature, nevertheless draws from the rigors of the quantitative school in identifying and then tracking the significant dimensions of analysis that emerge over time as strands of events leading to plausible scenarios. Our empirical analysis revealed mapping strands to three themes – ownership, distribution and innovation – which we used in an expert validation exercise to formulate scenarios. We present and discuss the major findings and implications of this empirical investigation. In a nutshell, we conjecture that an open, competitive IDM marketplace with performance safeguards may serve both and lead to a win-win scenario. While there are differences among IDM sectors, a unified approach to regulation and policy would be effective.

Abstract

In this practice article, we present the results of a scenario planning approach that is a hybrid of the three main schools of thought. Our research objective was to study the future of Interactive Digital Media applications such as online music, on-demand television and massively multi-player online role-playing games. Our approach, while essentially qualitative in nature, nevertheless draws from the rigors of the quantitative school in identifying and then tracking the significant dimensions of analysis that emerge over time as strands of events leading to plausible scenarios. Our empirical analysis revealed mapping strands to three themes – ownership, distribution and innovation – which we used in an expert validation exercise to formulate scenarios. We present and discuss the major findings and implications of this empirical investigation. In a nutshell, we conjecture that an open, competitive IDM marketplace with performance safeguards may serve both and lead to a win-win scenario. While there are differences among IDM sectors, a unified approach to regulation and policy would be effective.

참고문헌 (77)

  1. Amit, R, "Value creation in e-business", Strategic Management Journal, 22(6-7), pp.493~520 (2001)
  2. Ang, C.S, "A model of cognitive loads in massively multiplayer online role playing games", Interacting with Computers, 19(2), pp.167~179 (2007)
  3. Berman, S, "New business models for the new media world", Strategy & Leadership, 35(4), pp.23~31 (2007)
  4. Boaventura, J.M.G, "Is your vision consistent? A method for checking, based on scenario concepts", Futures, 40(7), pp.597~612 (2008)
  5. Bouwman, H, "A business model for IPTV service: a dynamic framework", Info, 10(3), pp.22~38 (2008)
  6. Burt, G, "Why are we surprised at surprises? Integrating disruption theory and system analysis with the scenario methodology to help identify disruptions and discontinuities", Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 74(6), pp.731~749 (2007)
  7. Castronova, E, "Synthetic World: The Business and Culture of Online Games" (2005), University of Chicago Press
  8. Castronova, E, "Worlds to Conquer Online: Multiplayer Gaming Comes of Age Synthetic Worlds: The Business and Culture of Online Games" (2005), University of Chicago Press
  9. Chermack, T.J, "Studying scenario planning: theory, research suggestions and hypotheses", Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 72, pp.53~68 (2005)
  10. Chuang, Y.C, "Massively multiplayer online role-playing game-induced seizures: a neglected health problem in internet addiction", Cyber Psychology & Behavior, 9(4), pp.451~456 (2006)
  11. Coles, A.M, "Is the party over? Innovation and Music on the Web. Information", Communication and Ethics in Society Information, 2(1), pp.21~30 (2004)
  12. Cornelius, P, "Three decades of scenario planning in shell", California Management Review, 34(2), pp.335~387 (2005)
  13. "Second Life Land Deal Goes Sour" (2006)[URL]
  14. Duchene, A, "The legal and technological battle in the music industry: information-push versus information-pull technologies", International Review of Law and Economics, 26(4), pp.565~580 (2006)
  15. Duh, R, "Control and assurance in e-commerce: privacy, integrity and security at eBay", Sloan Management Review, 43(1), pp.17~35 (2001)
  16. The Future of TV: The Evolving Landscape of HDTV, IPTV and Mobile TV, "Eastwood, G", Gartner, ~ (2007)
  17. Erman, B, "Analysis and realization of IPTV service quality", Bell Labs Technical Journal, 12(4), pp.195~212 (2008)
  18. Fabbe, C.N, "Future sustainable supply chains: what should companies scan", International Journal of Physical Distribution and Logistics Management, 41(3), pp.228~252 (2011)
  19. Fahey, L, "Learning from the Future" (1998), Wiley & Sons
  20. Georgantzas, N.C, "Scenario-Driven Planning: Learning to Manage Strategic Uncertainty" (1995), Greenwood Publishing
  21. Godet, M, "Creating Future Scenario Planning as a Strategic Management Tool" (2006), Economica Ltd
  22. Griffith, M.W, "The future for multimedia- the battle for world dominance", Long Range Planning, 29(5), pp.18~29 (1996)
  23. Griffiths, M.D, "Demographic factors and playing variables in online computer gaming", Cyber Psychology & Behavior, 7(4), pp.479~487 (2004)
  24. Guion, L.A, "A 10-step process for environmental scanning", Journal of Extension, 48(4), pp.30~35 (2010)
  25. Hsu, C.L, "Consumer behavior in online game communities: a motivational factor perspective", Computers in Human Behavior, 23(3), pp.1642~1659 (2007)
  26. Huss, W.R, "Scenario planning: what style should you use", Long Range Planning, 20(4), pp.21~30 (1987)
  27. "Digital Music Report 2008" (2008)[URL]
  28. "Cyber-Sabre Provokes Real Death" (2005)[URL]
  29. "Thoughts on Music" (2008)[URL]
  30. Karakas, F, "Welcome to world 2.0: the new digital ecosystem", Journal of Business Strategy, 30(4), pp.23~30 (2009)
  31. Krogfoss, B, "Caching architectures and optima-zation strategies for IPTV networks", Bell Labs Technical Journal, 13(3), pp.16~24 (2008)
  32. Krippendorff, K, "Content Analysis: An Introduction to Its Methodology" (2004), Sage Publication
  33. "Cycles in Music" (2008)[URL]
  34. Kunze, O, "Consumer adoption of online music services the influence of perceived risks and risk relief strategies", International Journal of Retail & Distribution Management, 35(11), pp.16~ (2007)
  35. Lo, S.K, "Physical interpersonal relationships and social anxiety among online games players", Cyber Psychology & Behaviour, 8(1), pp.15~20 (2005)
  36. Lucchi, N, "The supremacy of techno-governance: privatization of digital content and consumer protection in the globalized information society", International Journal of Law and Information Technology, 15(2), pp.192~225 (2007)
  37. Marcel M, "Protecting our children on the internet" (2000), Bertelsmann Foundation Publishers
  38. Mahizhnan, A, "Saviours and barbarians at the gate: dilemmas of regulatory policies for new media", Keynote address at 2nd SIGIDE workshop on IDM (2009), University of Liepzig
  39. Mantel, N, "The detection of disease clustering and a generalized regression approach", Cancer Research, 27(2), pp.209~220 (1967)
  40. McCaslin, M, "Research on individual differences within a sociocultural perspective: co-regulation and adaptive learning", Teachers College Record, 113(2), pp.325~349 (2011)
  41. Meisel, J.B, "The Impact of the Internet on the law and economics of the music industry", Info, 4(2), pp.6~21 (2002)
  42. Millett, S.M, "The Future of scenarios: challenges and opportunities", Strategy & Leadership, 31(2), pp.16~24 (2003)
  43. Molteni, L, "Consumption patterns digital technology and music downloading", Long Range Planning, 36(4), pp.18~32 (2003)
  44. Norusis, M.J, "SPSS Statistics 17.0 Advanced Statistical Procedures Companion" (2008), Prentice Hall
  45. Ogilvy, J.A, "Creating Better Futures: Scenario Planning as a Tool for a Better Tomorrow" (2002), Oxford University Press
  46. Pagani, M, "Road-mapping 3G mobile TV: strategic thinking and scenario planning through repeated cross-impact handling", Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 76(3), pp.382~395 (2009)
  47. Papagiannidis, S, "Making real money in virtual worlds: MMORPGs and emerging business opportunities, challenges and ethical imply-cations in metaverses", Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 75, pp.610~622 (2008)
  48. Pereira, F, "The Future of Switched Voice: A Firecracker Approach, Centre for Technology Management" (2004), USC Press
  49. Poel, M, "Business model analysis as a new tool for policy evaluation: policies for digital content platforms", Info, 9(5), pp.86~100 (2007)
  50. Rajamma, R.K, "Services purchased at brick and mortal versus online stores and shopping motivation", Journal of Services Marketing, 21(3), pp.200~213 (2007)
  51. Reedy, S, "IPTV ADDS TO THE BUSINESS PLAN", Telephony, 249(1), pp.16~18 (2008)
  52. Rikkonen, P, "Future prospects of alternative agro-based bioenergy use in Finland-constructing scenarios with quantitative and qualitative Delphi data", Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 76(7), pp.978~990 (2009)
  53. Rongone, A, "The television revolution within the multimedia convergence: a strategic reference framework", anagement Decision, 41(1), pp.48~71 (2003)
  54. Sharp, C.E, "Online games and e-business: architecture for integrating business models and services into online games", IBM Systems Journal, 45, pp.161~181 (2006)
  55. Shin, D.H, "Technology convergence and regulatory challenge: a case from Korean digital media broadcasting", Info, 7(3), pp.47~58 (2005)
  56. Shin, D.H, "Socio-technical analysis of IPTV: a case study of Korean IPTV", Info, 9(1), pp.66~79 (2007)
  57. Shoemaker, P.J.H, "When and how to use scenario planning; a heuristic approach with illustration", Journal of Forecasting, 10(6), pp.549~565 (1991)
  58. Schwartz, P, "The Art of the Long View" (1991), Doubleday
  59. "Scenarios" (2005)[URL]
  60. Spero, I, "Agents of change: how young consumers are changing the world of marketing", Qualitative Market Research, 7(2), pp.155~159 (2004)
  61. Swatman, P, "The changing digital content landscape an evaluation of e-business model development in European online news and music", Internet Research, 16(1), pp.53~82 (2006)
  62. Szulansk, G, "Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies", pp.189~205 (2004), John Wiley & Sons
  63. Torgerson, W.S, "Multidimensional scaling of similarity", Psychometrik, 30(4), pp.127~145 (1965)
  64. Tychsen, A, "Live action role-playing games control, communication, storytelling, and MMORPG similarities", Game and Culture, 1(3), pp.252~275 (2006)
  65. van der Heijden, K, "Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation" (2005), John Wiley
  66. Wack, P, "Scenarios: shooting the rapids", Harvard Business Review, 63(6), pp.139~151 (1985)
  67. Wack, P, "Scenarios: uncharted waters ahead", Harvard Business Review, 63(5), pp.73~90 (1985)
  68. Walsh, G, "Internet-induced changes in consumer music procurement behavior: a German perspective", Marketing Intelligence & Planning, 21(5), pp.305~318 (2003)
  69. Waltermann, J, "Protecting our children on the internet" (2000), Bertelsmann Foundation Publishers
  70. Williams, D, "Groups and goblins: the social and civic impact of an online game", Journal of Broadcasting and Electronic Media, 50(4), pp.651~670 (2006)
  71. Williams, R, "Four smart ways to run online communities", Sloan Management Review, 41(4), pp.81~91 (2000)
  72. "Virtual property brokers promise ‘We deliver instantly 24 hours a day’" (2004)[URL]
  73. "Multidimensional Scaling" (1999)[URL]
  74. Young, F.W, "Visual Statistics: Seeing Data with Dynamic Interactive Graphics" (2006), Wiley-Inderscience
  75. Zwicky, F, "Discovery, Invention, Research-Through the Morphological Approach" (1969), Macmillan

관련 논문AI추천

이 간행물의 다른 논문 (4건)