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산불의 초기 확산단계 전환에 영향을 미치는 인자 분석 - 강원도 동해안 산불 사례를 중심으로 -

Influencing Factors for Stage Transition from Ignition to Early Stage of Spread of Forest Fires - A Case of East Coast of Gangwon State, South Korea -

임상준|이철원|안수정|정진규
(사)위기관리이론과실천 (Crisis and Emergency Management: Theory and Praxis)|2024.02|Crisisonomy|제20권 제2호|pp. 53-68|DOI https://doi.org/10.14251/crisisonomy.2024.20.2.53

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키워드

로지스틱 회귀분석logistic regression산불independence test단계 전환초기 확산단계독립성 검정forest firesstage transitionearly stage of spread

초록

산불에 대한 효과적인 조기 대응을 위해서는 산불 발화 후 초기 확산단계로 전환되는 데 영향을 미치는인자를 파악하는 것이 필수적이다. 2007년부터 2019년까지 강원도 동해안 5개 시군에서 발생한 산불을대상으로 산불의 초기 확산단계 전환에 영향을 미치는 인자를 파악하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 지형, 임상도 데이터, 사회·지리적 조건 등의 인자와 산불 초기 확산단계 전환 여부와의 연관성을 독립성검정과 로지스틱 회귀분석을 통해 분석하였다. 분석 결과 고도와 경사, 초동진화자원까지의 거리가산불의 초기 확산단계 전환과 상대적으로 높은 연관성을 가졌으며, 고도와 초동진화자원까지의 거리는상호작용이 존재하였다. 임상, 수관밀도, 산불 피해지를 관찰하는 감시자원의 개수 등은 상대적으로낮은 연관성을 가졌다. 그러나 침엽수림, 수관밀도가 밀한 곳, 감시자원의 가시권에 포함되지 않는 곳에서 산불 발화 빈도가 높았으므로 산불 예방 및 대응을 위해서 반드시 고려되어야 할 것으로 판단되었다. 이 연구의 결과는 산불 조기 대응 및 초기 진화 대책 수립에 도움을 줄 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

Abstract

Identifying the key factors that influence the transition from ignition to the early stage of spread is important for effective early response to forest fires. This study aimed to identify the factors influencing the stage transition of forest fires, focusing on those that occurred in five cities along the east coast of Gangwon State in South Korea from 2007 to 2019. The study analyzed the association of factors including terrain, forest characteristics, social and geographical factors of the burned areas with the transition from ignition to early stage of spread, using independence tests and logistic regression. The results showed that elevation, slope and the distance to the nearest initial firefighting resources were highly associated with the stage transition. Forest type, crown density and the number of fire monitoring resources observing burned area showed relatively low association with the stage transition. However, these factors had a relation with the frequency of forest fire occurrences. These findings are expected to be helpful in establishing strategies for early response to, and initial suppression of, forest fires.

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