BASS 확산 모형을 이용한 국내 자동차 외장 램프 LED 수요예측 분석
Domestic Automotive Exterior Lamp-LEDs Demand and Forecasting using BASS Diffusion Model
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Purpose: Compared to the rapid growth rate of the domestic automotive LED industry so far, the predictive analysis method for demand forecasting or market outlook was insufficient. Accordingly, product characteristics are analyzed through the life trend of LEDs for automotive exterior lamps and the relative strengths of p and q using the Bass model. Also, future demands are predicted. Methods: We used sales data of a leading company in domestic market of automotive LEDs. Considering the autocorrelation error term of this data, parameters m, p, and q were estimated through the modified estimation method of OLS and the NLS(Nonlinear Least Squares) method, and the optimal method was selected by comparing prediction error performance such as RMSE. Future annual demands and cumulative demands were predicted through the growth curve obtained from Bass-NLS model. In addition, various nonlinear growth curve models were applied to the data to compare the Bass-NLS model with potential market demand, and an optimal model was derived. Results: From the analysis, the parameter estimation results by Bass-NLS obtained m=1338.13, p=0.0026, q=0.3003. If the current trend continues, domestic automotive LED market is predicted to reach its maximum peak in 2021 and the maximum demand is $102.23M. Potential market demand was $1338.13M. In the nonlinear growth curve model analysis, the Gompertz model was selected as the optimal model, and the potential market size was $2864.018M. Conclusion: It is expected that the Bass-NLS method will be applied to LED sales data for automotive to find out the characteristics of the relative strength of q/p of products and to be used to predict current demand and future cumulative demand.
Abstract
Purpose: Compared to the rapid growth rate of the domestic automotive LED industry so far, the predictive analysis method for demand forecasting or market outlook was insufficient. Accordingly, product characteristics are analyzed through the life trend of LEDs for automotive exterior lamps and the relative strengths of p and q using the Bass model. Also, future demands are predicted. Methods: We used sales data of a leading company in domestic market of automotive LEDs. Considering the autocorrelation error term of this data, parameters m, p, and q were estimated through the modified estimation method of OLS and the NLS(Nonlinear Least Squares) method, and the optimal method was selected by comparing prediction error performance such as RMSE. Future annual demands and cumulative demands were predicted through the growth curve obtained from Bass-NLS model. In addition, various nonlinear growth curve models were applied to the data to compare the Bass-NLS model with potential market demand, and an optimal model was derived. Results: From the analysis, the parameter estimation results by Bass-NLS obtained m=1338.13, p=0.0026, q=0.3003. If the current trend continues, domestic automotive LED market is predicted to reach its maximum peak in 2021 and the maximum demand is $102.23M. Potential market demand was $1338.13M. In the nonlinear growth curve model analysis, the Gompertz model was selected as the optimal model, and the potential market size was $2864.018M. Conclusion: It is expected that the Bass-NLS method will be applied to LED sales data for automotive to find out the characteristics of the relative strength of q/p of products and to be used to predict current demand and future cumulative demand.
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