저수지 관리 관행을 반영한 농업용 저수지 저수율 추정

Abstract

Due to the climate change the drought had been occurring more frequently in recent two decades as compared to the previous years. The change inthe pattern and frequency of the rainfall have a direct effect on the farming sector; therefore, the quantitative estimation of water supply is necessaryfor efficient agricultural water reservoir management. In past researches, there had been several studies conducted in estimation and evaluation of watersupply based on the irrigational water requirement. However, some researches had shown significant differences between the theoretical and observeddata based on this requirement. Thus, this study aims to propose an approach in estimating reservoir rate based on empirical method that utilizedobserved reservoir rate data. The result of these two methods in comparison with the previous one is seen to be more fitted for both R2 and RMSEwith the observed reservoir rate. Among these procedures, the method that considers the drought year data shows more fitted outcomes. In addition,this new method was verified using 15-year (2002 to 2006) linear regression equation and then compare the preceeding 3-year (1999 to 2001) datato the theoretical method. The result using linear regression equation is also perceived to be more closely fitted to the observed reservoir rate data thanthe one based on theoretical irrigation water requirement. The new method developed in this research can therefore be used to provide more suitablesupply data, and can contribute to effectively managing the reservoir operation in the country.